Rio Tinto has pared back its ambitions for rapid lithium growth, telling investors at its capital markets day in London that it will limit investment to projects already under development, with any further expansion contingent on market conditions and strict returns criteria.
CEO Simon Trott confirmed that the company will complete its current slate of lithium projects — including the Rincon brine operation in Argentina and a single spodumene mine in Canada — to reach approximately 200,000 tonnes per year of lithium capacity by 2028. This figure is below the miner’s earlier guidance of 225,000 t/y, marking a recalibration of expectations amid a volatile market.
Trott emphasised that Rio Tinto remains bullish on long-term lithium demand, particularly from grid-scale energy storage, but said capital discipline would take precedence over aggressive growth. The company is prioritising delivery of its major ongoing developments, including the Oyu Tolgoi underground expansion in Mongolia and the Simandou iron-ore megaproject in Guinea. Group capital expenditure is expected to fall below $10 billion from 2028.
Rio Tinto has already halted spending at the Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which has been placed into care and maintenance after regulatory setbacks. The company is also reassessing its next steps in Canada, where the Whabouchi and Galaxy deposits are under review. Energy chief Jérôme Pécresse said both projects will remain active at minimal cost while Rio evaluates which — if either — will proceed. “It’s a reasonable decision to open one mine, not two, but too early to say which one,” he said.
Trott reiterated that any new lithium investment would move forward only when market fundamentals justify it and when projects meet Rio Tinto’s financial thresholds. The miner has allocated roughly $3 billion per year for growth across the portfolio but will not deploy capital that cannot “move the needle” in terms of shareholder value.
“We have a clear path to 200,000 tonnes by 2028 and that will be a fantastic business for us,” Trott said. “On other projects, we’ll continue to assess them based on the market fundamentals as they come up to sanction.”
He added that Rio Tinto still possesses “the best undeveloped lithium assets in the business,” but emphasised that growth for its own sake is off the table. Maintaining a strong balance sheet is the priority, with cost savings from asset reviews and infrastructure optimisation expected to bolster shareholder returns.







