At the recent Minex Forum, Geghamyan reflected on Armenia’s evolving role in the global mining sector, marking his second appearance at the event. He expressed gratitude to the organisers and speakers, particularly highlighting the previous day’s panel focused on financing. Geghamyan articulated a new narrative for Armenia, traditionally seen as a minor player in the mining industry, primarily known for molybdenum, copper, zinc, and lead production. He asserted that this outdated perception fails to capture Armenia’s current significance, which encompasses broader themes of economic security, industrial policy, and strategic connectivity within the shifting global supply chain.
Geghamyan introduced his affiliations with Dabia, a corporate law firm with a strong international client base, and the International Chamber of Mines of Armenia (ICMA). He noted a significant achievement of his firm: the establishment of the first-ever US-Armenia joint venture in the mining sector, focused on a gold and antimony mine, which is progressing towards full-scale development. This venture reflects a growing interest from the US in smaller mining jurisdictions like Armenia, particularly following recent geopolitical shifts.
He emphasised Armenia’s strategic geographic position at the crossroads of Europe, the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East, which is integral to the emerging Middle Corridor trade route. Despite its small size, Armenia boasts a rich mineral endowment, with the Kajaran copper-molybdenum deposit being a flagship asset. Geghamyan highlighted that mining accounted for approximately 28% of Armenia’s national exports in 2024, yet the country faces a pivotal decision on whether to expand into downstream processing.
The discussion shifted to Armenia’s strategic partnership with the United States, formalised in 2025, which has led to increased diplomatic engagement and a focus on critical minerals. Geghamyan detailed the TRIPP project, aimed at enhancing connectivity between Central Asia and Europe, and framed it as a vital component of Armenia’s economic strategy. He expressed optimism about the current government’s stability, suggesting that it would bolster Armenia’s regional connectivity ambitions.
Geghamyan candidly addressed Armenia’s needs from international partners, highlighting the importance of developing processing facilities and modernising geological reporting standards to attract foreign investment. He concluded with an ambitious vision for Armenia, aspiring to be recognised not only for its critical mineral exports but also for its reliability and trustworthiness as a partner in the global mining landscape.
In the August 2026 issue of Ekonomi-Analiz, a new article titled “The New World’s Oil: Critical Minerals and Turkey’s Strategic Position” by Selçuk Bostancı, Corporate Communications Coordinator at MAPEG explores the evolving significance of critical minerals in the global economy and Turkey’s potential to emerge as a key player in this arena. The article argues that critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements, have transcended their traditional roles as mere inputs for the mining sector. Instead, they are now viewed as essential components of energy security, industrial capacity, and national defence, positioning them at the forefront of global competition akin to oil and natural gas.
Why these minerals matter so much
The reasoning given is straightforward: nearly every piece of modern technology — from smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines, defense systems, space technology, and data centers — depends on these raw materials. Being “critical” isn’t just about scarcity; it’s about how essential a mineral is to the economy, energy, defense, or advanced technology, and how disruptive it would be if supply were interrupted. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite are singled out for battery technology; rare earths for electric motors and high-performance magnets; and copper for everything from power grids to electric vehicles. The piece frames this as a value chain running from mining through refining, advanced materials, and finished products — arguing that while advanced technology is the visible face of the energy and tech transition, mining is its invisible foundation.
A global race is underway
Citing the International Energy Agency’s 2026 projections under its “Stated Policies” scenario, the article notes that demand for critical minerals is expected to nearly double by 2040. But the bigger issue, it argues, isn’t rising demand itself — it’s that production and especially processing capacity are concentrated in a small number of countries, turning critical minerals into a matter of supply security. This is pushing the US, China, and the EU, among others, to pursue new mining investment, processing facilities, recycling, and strategic stockpiles. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, for instance, sets 2030 targets for extraction, processing, and recycling. The underlying point: future competition won’t just be between countries that hold mineral resources, but between those that can actually process those resources into high-value products.
Turkey’s strategic standing
Turkey’s geological diversity is presented as a real opportunity in this new landscape. A Critical and Strategic Minerals Report published by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources identifies 37 mineral types considered critical or strategic for the country.
One standout example cited is the rare earth element site at Eskişehir-Beylikova. More than 125,000 meters of drilling there identified an estimated resource of around 694 million tons of rare earth material, and a pilot production facility is already running. Work is now underway to build out full industrial-scale capacity, including separation and processing. The article uses Beylikova to make a broader point: strategic value today isn’t just about owning a deposit — it depends equally on extracting, separating, and processing the ore into high-value products that industry can actually use. It notes that Turkey’s mineral assets — boron chief among them — along with its rare earth work and other critical minerals initiatives, show mining increasingly being tied together with technology and industry.
Giving back to nature while extracting
Growing demand for critical minerals comes with a responsibility, the article argues: sustainable mining. Today’s approach to mining isn’t just about extracting economic value from the ground — it also means restoring sites back to nature and the community once operations end.
It points to concrete evidence of this in Turkey through MAPEG’s (General Directorate of Mining and Petroleum Affairs) nationwide project tracking rehabilitated mining sites and mining-related social responsibility work, known as TÜRMES. As of August 2026, the project has documented 205 rehabilitated mining sites across 35 provinces, covering roughly 13,252 hectares of restored land, with close to 23.9 million trees and plants replanted, and 185 mining-related social responsibility projects recorded. This data is made publicly available and transparent through a TÜRMES information map on MAPEG’s website, letting anyone see how sites across different regions of Turkey have been returned to nature after mining activity. The article presents these figures as proof that a mining model which “produces while also giving back to nature” is achievable with the right planning and rehabilitation practices.
Turning underground value into future value
The closing section argues that as electrification, defense technology, digitalization, and AI continue to advance, mineral raw materials will only grow more strategically important. Turkey, with its mineral diversity, mining experience, industrial base, and geostrategic location, is well positioned for this shift. But the article stresses that future value in mining won’t be measured by reserve size alone — it will come from combining resources with science and technology, converting them into high-value products, and doing so sustainably. It suggests this is exactly why the “new world’s oil” comparison for critical minerals keeps gaining resonance: what will ultimately determine future wealth isn’t simply what lies underground, but what we’re able to turn that underground value into — above ground, and with nature in mind.
Hellas Gold S.A. has announced that the Skouries project, located in northeastern Halkidiki, Greece, is entering its final stages of development. This state-of-the-art copper-gold mine is not only significant on a national level but also holds considerable importance for Europe as a whole. The Skouries project is being developed with advanced technologies and adheres to the principles of responsible mining, ensuring that environmental and social considerations are at the forefront of its operations.
The Skouries mine is expected to play a pivotal role in enhancing Greece’s position on the European mining map. It is projected to create numerous job opportunities, bolster exports, and contribute significantly to state income. Moreover, the mine will provide a new source of copper, a metal that is increasingly essential for the energy transition, renewable energy initiatives, electric mobility, and future technological advancements.
With the first production of copper-gold concentrate anticipated in the third quarter of 2026 and commercial production expected to commence by the fourth quarter of the same year, the Skouries project is transitioning from the construction phase to a focus on long-term value creation. This development is expected to have a lasting impact on the local economy and the broader European mining sector, positioning Greece as a key player in the supply of critical minerals necessary for the green economy.
As the project progresses, stakeholders are optimistic about the potential benefits that Skouries will bring, not only in terms of economic growth but also in establishing a model for sustainable mining practices in the region. The successful implementation of this project could set a precedent for future mining ventures in Greece and beyond, highlighting the importance of balancing resource extraction with environmental stewardship.
Lindian Resources Limited has announced significant advancements in the construction and operational readiness of its Kangankunde Rare Earths Project in Malawi, with first production slated for the fourth quarter of 2026. The company is on track for front-end commissioning by late October 2026, with practical completion expected in November 2026. As mining operations ramp up, ore is being mined and stockpiled in preparation for commissioning, while construction of the process plant and tailings storage facility (TSF) is progressing rapidly.
The company is concurrently enhancing its operational capabilities across multiple regions, including Kazakhstan, Singapore, and Perth, to support the Kangankunde project and its recently acquired SARECO MREC Processing Facility in Kazakhstan. Lindian’s Executive Director, Zac Komur, highlighted the importance of this phase, noting that construction, mining, and operational readiness are advancing together, which is crucial for a smooth transition to production.
Key infrastructure developments include the completion of the first phase of a 33kV powerline and ongoing water supply infrastructure enhancements, both critical for the commissioning of the process plant. The construction of the TSF is also on schedule, with civil works advancing towards completion by the end of October 2026.
In addition to the project’s physical advancements, Lindian is focused on building its operational team, with key personnel being recruited and transferred to ensure a skilled workforce is in place for the upcoming production phase. The company is also expanding its corporate and operational support capabilities in Perth, further strengthening its position as it moves towards production.
Overall, Lindian Resources is making significant strides in its efforts to establish the Kangankunde Rare Earths Project as a key player in the global rare earth supply chain, with the potential for substantial production capacity and strategic partnerships enhancing its market position.
Vast Resources plc, a mining and resource development company listed on AIM, has successfully completed a reverse takeover of Gulf International Minerals Limited. This strategic move marks a significant milestone for Vast, as it enhances its portfolio of producing and development-stage projects in Tajikistan and Romania. The completion of the reverse takeover was announced following the passing of all resolutions at a General Meeting held on 18 August 2026, with the re-admission of the company’s enlarged ordinary share capital to trading on AIM set for 19 August 2026.
As part of the acquisition, Vast has acquired a 49% beneficial interest in the Aprelevka Joint Venture, which operates four active mining licences along the Tien Shan Gold Belt in northern Tajikistan. This venture is expected to yield approximately 11,000 ounces of gold and 130,000 ounces of silver annually from mined ore and tailings. The company has also raised around £7.5 million through a placing and subscription, alongside an oversubscribed retail offer, to fund creditor settlements, professional fees related to the takeover, and the technical development of the Aprelevka assets.
In addition to the reverse takeover, Vast has undergone a share consolidation, with every 25 existing ordinary shares consolidated into one new ordinary share. Following this, the company will have approximately 1.65 billion ordinary shares in issue.
Vast Resources has also announced a drilling campaign in Tajikistan aimed at establishing a maiden JORC-compliant resource for the Aprelevka assets. CEO Andrew Prelea expressed optimism about the company’s future, highlighting the potential for growth and the commitment to responsible mining practices in collaboration with the Government of Tajikistan. The company is also exploring opportunities in the broader Central Asian region and plans to restart operations at its Romanian assets, ensuring continued growth.
This development is seen as a pivotal moment for Vast Resources, positioning the company for future success as it aims to become a profitable mid-tier mining entity with a focus on sustainable practices and operational efficiency.
China is exploring the recovery of critical minerals from coal waste, with researchers highlighting fly ash and coal gangue as potential sources of strategic metals including germanium, gallium, lithium and aluminum.
According to a new report, China’s extensive coal mining and power generation infrastructure could be leveraged to recover valuable metals from by-products that have traditionally been treated as industrial waste.
“The coal refuse contains a variety of metal elements and could become an important source of critical metal supply,” said Dai Shifeng, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor at the China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing.
Coal gangue refers to the rock separated from coal during mining, while fly ash is the fine mineral residue left after coal combustion. Although typically disposed of or used in construction materials such as cement, both materials can contain economically valuable concentrations of critical minerals and rare earth elements.
Researchers argue that China’s integrated coal industry provides a strong foundation for resource recovery. Existing coal washing, chemical processing and power generation facilities could potentially be adapted to extract strategic metals from waste streams, reducing the need for additional mining.
The approach could support China’s growing demand for critical minerals used in semiconductors, batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies and defence applications, while also improving resource efficiency and reducing industrial waste.
However, the report notes that commercial recovery remains technically challenging. Metal concentrations vary significantly depending on the geological characteristics of individual coal deposits, and fly ash from different coal sources is often blended during power generation, resulting in inconsistent feedstock quality that can affect the economic viability of extraction.
Researchers nevertheless believe rising demand for critical minerals will continue to improve the prospects for recovering metals from coal waste, building on China’s existing experience in extracting germanium from coal-related resources.
Spain is strengthening its position in the European critical minerals supply chain through a new 2026-2030 Action Plan for the Sustainable Management of Mineral Raw Materials, backed by €414 million in public investment to support exploration, mining, processing and innovation.
The initiative includes the launch of the National Mineral Exploration Program (PNEM), with €182 million allocated to mineral exploration aimed at unlocking the country’s resource potential and supporting exploration companies. The strategy also introduces 34 measures covering regulatory reform, institutional coordination, research, innovation and the development of the domestic mining value chain.
The plan aligns with the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which seeks to increase domestic extraction, processing and recycling of strategic minerals to reduce Europe’s dependence on external suppliers.
Tin project advances in Andalucía
Among the projects expected to benefit is Elementos’ Oropesa Tin Project in the Andalucía region, Spain’s largest mining jurisdiction, which accounts for around 90% of the country’s metallic mining production.
The project has been designated as being of “Overriding Public Interest” by the regional government and has been included in Andalucía’s Project Accelerator Unit, recognising its economic, environmental and social importance.
Elementos believes Oropesa could eventually supply around 10% of the European Union’s tin demand, while a proposed domestic smelting facility would allow more than 10% of EU tin consumption to be processed within Spain. The company has signed an option agreement to acquire up to a 50% interest in the nearby Robledallano tin smelter, supporting downstream processing and reducing transport costs and emissions.
The Oropesa project hosts an ore reserve of 15.9 million tonnes grading 0.36% tin and a mineral resource of 19.6 million tonnes at 0.39% tin, with a definitive feasibility study outlining a projected 12-year mine life.
Tungsten production expands
EQ Resources is also strengthening Spain’s strategic minerals sector through its Barruecopardo tungsten mine, one of the largest tungsten operations outside China, Russia and North Korea.
The company produced approximately 1,680 tonnes of tungsten trioxide (WO₃) concentrate during FY2025 and aims to increase annual production to 3,000-3,500 tonnes across its operations in Spain and Australia.
In June 2026, EQ Resources launched a 36-hole drilling programme at Barruecopardo to extend the mine’s life and evaluate deeper mineralisation. The project currently hosts a 22.9 million tonne resource grading 0.2% WO₃ with an estimated mine life of approximately nine years.
With around 85% of global tungsten supply currently originating from China, Spain’s expanding production is expected to contribute to efforts to diversify global supply chains for this critical mineral.
Spain’s new investment programme, together with ongoing permitting reforms and support for downstream processing, is expected to strengthen the country’s role as a strategic supplier of critical minerals within the European Union.
The owners of Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) are considering a major restructuring that would separate the company’s Kazakhstan operations from its international mining assets, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The proposed split would divide the group between its two principal private shareholders, Shakhmurat Mutalip and Shukhrat Ibragimov. ERG currently generates most of its revenue from iron ore, ferrochrome and aluminium production in Kazakhstan, while also operating mining assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazil.
Under the proposal, Shukhrat Ibragimov, ERG’s Chief Executive Officer and Chairman since 2024, would exchange his family’s 20% shareholding for ownership of the international business, which would be transferred into a newly created company. Shakhmurat Mutalip and the Government of Kazakhstan, which holds a 40% stake in ERG, would retain ownership of the group’s Kazakhstan mining and metallurgical operations.
If completed, the restructuring would strengthen Mutalip’s influence over ERG’s domestic business, while allowing Ibragimov to focus on the company’s international portfolio, particularly its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. ERG owns several producing and development-stage assets in the country, including Metalkol, one of the world’s largest cobalt producers and a significant copper supplier.
The discussions follow Mutalip’s acquisition of a 39.3% stake in ERG in May from the families of co-founders Patokh Chodiev and Alexander Mashkevich, reflecting a broader transition in Kazakhstan’s business landscape. Last month, the chairman of Mutalip’s construction company was appointed Chief Executive Officer of ERG’s Kazakhstan business.
According to sources, approximately US$2 billion of ERG’s debt would be transferred to the new international company. The business would continue to face operational challenges in the Democratic Republic of Congo, including illegal mining activities affecting concessions operated by Metalkol and Boss Mining SAS.
The potential restructuring comes amid growing international interest in critical mineral supply chains. The United States has increased its engagement in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mining sector as part of efforts to diversify supplies of copper and cobalt away from China. In December, Washington signed a strategic partnership with the Congolese government aimed at supporting American investment in mining and infrastructure projects.
Neither ERG nor representatives of the shareholders immediately commented on the reported plans.
Austrian lawmakers have submitted a parliamentary inquiry calling for an investigation into the business activities and financial structures linked to Ferrexpo plc and its major shareholder, Konstantin Zhevago, following allegations concerning transfer pricing, corporate transactions and asset ownership.
The inquiry names several Ferrexpo-related entities, including Ferrexpo AG, The Minco Trust, First-DDSG Logistics Holding GmbH, MAG Handels- und Transport GmbH, MAGferr GmbH, Eliomys Vermögensverwaltung KG, Oxanikus Vermögensverwaltung KG and Luxembourg-based Calexco S.a.r.l. Authorities have also been asked to examine potential business links involving several individuals connected to the companies.
The request follows reports published by Austrian magazine Profil, Zhevago’s arrest in France in 2022 and Ukrainian sanctions imposed against him in February 2025.
One of the main issues under review concerns the marketing of iron ore pellets produced by Poltava Mining and Processing Plant. According to allegations cited in the inquiry, pellets were sold through Ferrexpo AG in Switzerland rather than directly to European steelmakers, including Voestalpine, Salzgitter and Thyssenkrupp, at below-market prices, allowing profits to be shifted outside Ukraine. The alleged outstanding debt to the Poltava operation is estimated at more than US$500 million. Ferrexpo has rejected the allegations, stating that all transactions were conducted on market terms and complied with applicable transfer pricing regulations.
The parliamentary inquiry also requests an examination of Ferrexpo’s historical relationship with Voestalpine, including the sale of interests in VA Intertrading AG to Calexco S.a.r.l., existing commercial agreements and whether any insider information may have been used in securities trading. Austrian financial regulators have been asked to clarify whether investigations into potential market manipulation or insider trading have been conducted.
Separately, lawmakers are reviewing the activities of First-DDSG Logistics Holding GmbH, which transported Ferrexpo products. The inquiry notes that the logistics company reported losses of €44.8 million in 2022, €42.3 million in 2023 and €41 million in 2024, prompting questions over transfer pricing arrangements and management decisions.
The inquiry further seeks information regarding four luxury properties in Austria, including Villa Schwarzenfels in Maria-Wörth, two villas in Vienna and another in Pressbaum, to determine whether they are connected to Zhevago and to establish the origin of the funds used for their acquisition.
The investigation comes as Ferrexpo faces financial pressures. According to the company, it held approximately US$20 million in cash as of April 2026, while awaiting US$90.3 million in outstanding VAT refunds from the Ukrainian government. The company has announced plans to raise at least US$100 million through a share issue, sell the vessel Iron Destiny for US$7.7 million, implement cost reductions and has warned of potential insolvency risks if its financial position does not improve.
Central Asia and Mongolia will remain resilient to geopolitical shocks and record the highest growth rates of the EBRD countries of operation in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report published on 3 June 2026, by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The combined economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are projected to grow by 5.6% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027.
These are compelling headline figures. Yet beneath them lies a more consequential story—one that the OECD’s March 2026 report, Advancing Security and Transparency for the Governance of Critical Raw Materials in Central Asia, articulates with rare precision: the region is not merely growing; it is repositioning itself at the very heart of the global critical raw materials race.
The mining sector is no longer a background variable in Central Asia’s development story. It is the plot itself.
MINEX Asia 2026 is where it gets real. Join EBRD and OECD peers presenting on Kazakhstan’s scale, Tajikistan’s green pivot, Uzbekistan’s processing ambitions—and the governance gaps that determine success.
The Regional Narrative: Resilience With Structural Depth
Growth prospects remain robust but are increasingly dependent on the pace of domestic reforms and efforts to strengthen resilience to external shocks. Strong domestic consumption, rising real wages, and robust capital investment are real. But so are the fault lines: downside risks include energy price volatility, supply-chain disruptions, economic sanctions, and slower growth in the region’s largest trading and economic partners, Russia and China.
The OECD note adds a structural dimension that the growth forecasts alone cannot convey. Central Asia’s substantial yet untapped resource base, combined with its location between major markets in Europe and Asia, raises the region’s relevance in CRM geopolitics and efforts to diversify global supply chains. This is a geostrategic statement. The region holds extraordinary assets: Kazakhstan, already the world’s largest producer of uranium, produces and processes around twenty of the 34 CRMs included on the European Union’s official list. The Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan both host some of the world’s largest antimony reserves. Uzbekistan possesses some of the largest copper reserves globally and is advancing lithium and molybdenum production.
Taken together, these endowments amount to a critical minerals portfolio of exceptional strategic depth. Whether the region can translate that portfolio into durable prosperity is the central question of the coming decade.
Country by Country: Where the Headlines Don’t Tell the Full Story
Tajikistan: Gold and Strategic Minerals
Tajikistan: Gold and Strategic Minerals
Tajikistan’s economic performance continues to confound those who underestimate it. In March 2026, Moody’s upgraded Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook, citing the country’s continued economic resilience. The EBRD projects growth easing to 7.9 per cent in 2026 — still remarkable for a landlocked, remittance-dependent economy navigating elevated regional volatility.
The mining dimension is crucial. Gold remains the cornerstone of export revenue and fiscal stability, and Tajikistan’s antimony sector is poised for a structural step-change. Tajikistan possesses the world’s second largest antimony reserves, and China’s effective ban on antimony exports to the US and EU provides a significant window of opportunity. Together, France and Belgium accounted for 77% of Tajikistan’s antimony exports in 2024. With TALCO nearing completion of a new antimony metallurgical plant, Dushanbe is finally beginning to capture processing value rather than simply shipping raw material.
But what I find most intriguing about Tajikistan’s trajectory is the emerging convergence of green energy and artificial intelligence with its mining ambitions. The Rogun Hydropower Project — set to have an annual capacity of over 3,600 megawatts once fully operational — would cover most of Tajikistan’s domestic consumption and create the conditions for green aluminium production, with approximately 70 per cent of output earmarked for export to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Cheap, clean electricity is not merely an industrial asset — it is the foundation for competitive mining, smelting, and increasingly, data infrastructure.
Tajikistan has initiated groundbreaking infrastructure projects, including the launch of “Area AI” — the world’s first dedicated AI Zone — a technopark and cluster designed to serve as a hub for research, development, and application of AI technologies. The country has forged partnerships with international tech firms including Perplexity AI, Google DeepMind, Yotta and Presight to accelerate technology transfer and innovation. The government has declared 2025–2030 the “Years of Digital Economy and Innovation Development.” Taken alongside the Rogun-powered industrial ambitions, this is Tajikistan’s bid to become not just a minerals supplier but a genuinely integrated green industrial economy — using AI and clean energy together to escape the extractive trap.
The key vulnerability remains Tajikistan’s dependence on Russia, where a slowdown would depress the remittance inflows that underpin household incomes. That risk is real and should not be minimised. But the strategic direction of travel is clear — and it is more ambitious than most Western observers appreciate.
Kyrgyzstan: The Kumtor Imperative and Exploration Needs
Kyrgyzstan remains the region’s most dramatic case study in resource-dependent growth. Kumtor Gold Company — nationalised in 2022 after nearly three decades of Canadian stewardship — generated net profit exceeding USD 706 million in 2025, contributes 10–15 per cent of GDP, and represents nearly two-thirds of the country’s mineral exports. The March 2025 discovery of an additional 147 tonnes of gold reserves extended the mine’s productive life to at least another 17 years.
Underground mining operations, launched in August 2025, are transformative. At current gold prices hovering above USD 4,500 per ounce, Kumtor’s economics are exceptional — and the government’s plan to process tailings estimated to contain over 100 tonnes of gold adds further upside. Fixed capital investment rose by 25.5 per cent year on year thanks to strong investment in infrastructure, energy and housing.
Yet the near-term outlook has darkened. The European Union’s 20th sanctions package, announced in late April, restricts exports of dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan and tightens controls on its financial and logistics sectors. The EBRD has revised its 2026 growth forecast down to 8.7 per cent as a result. This is a significant geopolitical constraint on what would otherwise be an exceptionally strong growth story — and it underscores the OECD’s broader finding that regulatory unpredictability and governance gaps impose real costs on the region’s investment attractiveness.
The OECD note also flags a structural vulnerability that sits beneath the Kumtor euphoria: limited exploration since independence means that the Kumtor mine, accounting for 90% of the Kyrgyz gold exports, is set to close in 2031 due to reserves depletion — and the lack of exploration since independence will make it harder to offset this decline quickly. The reserve discovery of 2025 has bought time but not resolved the underlying fragility.
Kazakhstan: Scale, Strategy, and Industrial Output
Kazakhstan’s mining profile is defined by scale and global strategic significance. The country holds the world’s largest chromium reserves, accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global uranium output, and produces massive quantities of refined copper, largely exported to major industrial buyers like China and Türkiye.
Graphite is a high-potential sector for Kazakhstan. With the exploitation of its Sarytogan deposit — added to the EU’s list of strategic raw material projects and reported to contain 30% of the world’s graphite reserves — Kazakhstan is expecting to become a crucial player on the world graphite market.
The tungsten story is equally striking. Kazakhstan holds roughly 2 million tonnes of tungsten resources out of approximately 3.6 million tonnes of global reserves. A joint venture between Kazakhstan’s Tau-Ken Samruk and US-based Cove Kaz Capital Group has been formed to develop the Severniy Katpar tungsten project, with the US International Development Finance Corporation issuing Letters of Interest for up to USD 700 million in potential financing — marking Washington’s most significant entry yet into the region’s critical minerals sector.
Yet the near-term picture carries a real cautionary note. In Kazakhstan, the extractive industry contracted by 11.4 per cent year on year in Q1 2026 following disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline and an incident at the Tengiz oil field. The EBRD projects Kazakhstan’s GDP growth moderating to 4.7 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027 — the lowest in the region, reflecting the inherent vulnerability of commodity-led economies to infrastructure and logistics shocks.
Uzbekistan: The Ambitious Reformer
Uzbekistan’s ambitions deserve particular attention. The country is the world’s fifth-largest uranium supplier, a top-ten gold producer, and is rapidly positioning itself as a critical minerals investment destination. Uzbekistan has actively signed Memorandums of Understanding with Western partners, including the United States, for securing supply chains in the mining and processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. The government has also launched massive industrial initiatives to bolster its critical minerals sector.
The Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex (AMMC) and its specialised subsidiaries targeting tungsten, molybdenum, rhenium, lithium, and graphite signal a genuine strategic shift from raw extraction towards value-added processing. Whether governance and transparency standards keep pace with ambition will be the decisive variable.
The Structural Challenge: From Resource Extraction to Value Creation
Both the EBRD and the OECD converge on a single, uncomfortable truth: Central Asia’s growth is impressive, but its mining sectors remain structurally exposed. The OECD note identifies several systemic vulnerabilities that macro-growth figures obscure.
On reserves reporting: Most countries still operate on Soviet-era GKZ classification systems that differ fundamentally from international CRIRSCO standards — creating information asymmetries that deter sophisticated investors and complicate due diligence. Kazakhstan has made progress through its KAZRC system; other regional peers have barely started.
On foreign investment dynamics: Foreign actors, predominantly Chinese, actively invest in Central Asia’s mining industry. China has been a primary investor in the mining sectors of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, and is increasing its presence in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, not only by investing in extraction facilities but also by supporting the development of initial processing capabilities. This creates a strong strategic dependency that the region’s governments are increasingly aware of — and that Western partners, including the EU, UK, and US, are now actively looking to balance through alternative commercial partnerships.
On the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR): Traffic along the corridor (the Middle Corridor) has increased dramatically as exporters seek reliable East–West trade alternatives. Kazakhstan in particular has long relied on the corridor for its mineral, chemical, and agricultural exports, with a substantial portion of its uranium exports to Western markets utilising this bypass route. This corridor is central to the region’s ability to diversify export markets.
On ESG and governance: The OECD is frank: mining in the region is still heavily influenced by large state-owned enterprises with overlapping regulatory and commercial roles, needing stronger occupational health and safety oversight and remediation of legacy environmental risks. These are not peripheral concerns — they are the conditions on which Western investment and international supply chain partnerships will ultimately be conditioned.
The Strategic Opportunity
The OECD projects global demand for many critical raw materials to increase multifold over the coming decades to meet the needs of the green and digital transitions. Central Asia sits atop a significant share of the reserves that will need to come online to meet that demand. The region holds massive global shares of manganese ore, chromium, lead, zinc, titanium, aluminium, copper, cobalt, and molybdenum.
That is an extraordinary endowment. Translating it into durable prosperity requires three things that remain in genuinely short supply across the region: transparent governance, world-class ESG practice, and the institutional capacity to negotiate from strength with both regional and global partners.
This is precisely why platforms like the MINEX Forum matter. The conversation between producers, investors, policymakers, and development finance institutions that happens at these gatherings is not peripheral to the critical minerals agenda. It is where the terms of engagement are shaped.
Conclusion: Cautious Optimism, Clear Conditions
The EBRD’s projection of robust regional growth is credible. The OECD’s assessment of the region’s critical minerals potential is genuinely exciting. But both institutions are equally clear-eyed about the conditions that must be met for that potential to be realised responsibly.
Central Asia’s mining sectors are not simply economic contributors. They are strategic assets in the most consequential industrial transformation of our era. Their management — balancing extraction with environmental stewardship, concentrating revenue into productive capital formation, building institutional capacity, and securing diversified partnerships — will determine whether current growth translates into sustainable prosperity or rehearses the resource curse that has constrained other commodity-rich regions.
The next chapter will be written in mining offices, government ministries, and international forums across Dushanbe, Bishkek, Astana, Tashkent, and Ulaanbaatar. We should be not merely watching — we should be in the room.
References:
Central Asia and Mongolia to see highest economic growth in the EBRD regions
Arthur Poliakov is the Managing Director of the United Kingdom-based company Advantix Ltd and the Executive Chairman and founder of the MINEX Forum. He has over 30 years of experience in international business communications, event management, and natural resource markets.
He is currently organising the upcoming 12th MINEX Asia Forum (24–25 June 2026, Ankara, Turkey), the 10th MINEX Europe Forum (28–30 October 2026, Trim, Ireland), and the 14th MINEX Eurasia Conference (30 November 2026, London, United Kingdom).
