MINEX Forum

Tag: critical minerals

  • Ukraine selects U.S.-linked consortium to develop Dobra lithium deposit

    Ukraine selects U.S.-linked consortium to develop Dobra lithium deposit

    Ukraine has chosen a consortium that includes U.S.-connected investors as the preferred bidder to develop the Dobra lithium deposit in Kirovohrad Oblast, according to a report by The New York Times. The decision was taken on January 8 by a government commission and is expected to receive formal approval from the Cabinet of Ministers, though officials say the outcome is effectively settled.

    The winning consortium includes TechMet, an energy investment company partly owned by a U.S. government-backed investment agency, and billionaire Ronald Lauder, a long-time associate of U.S. President Donald Trump. Commission members cited the consortium’s strong technical and financial proposal, saying it met most of the tender’s criteria and denying allegations of favoritism.

    The Dobra deposit is one of Ukraine’s largest known lithium resources and is considered strategically important for technologies such as electric vehicle batteries. Development will take place under a production-sharing agreement, allowing investors to extract lithium in exchange for sharing output with the Ukrainian state.

    Under a broader U.S.-Ukraine minerals framework, half of the revenue generated for Ukraine from the project is to be channelled into a joint investment fund. Companies seeking to develop mineral deposits are also required to first present their projects to this fund, a mechanism designed to attract U.S. investment.

    While the minimum investment threshold for the tender was set at $179 million, officials indicated that the consortium’s pledged investment exceeds that figure. The agreement предусматривает spending at least $12 million on geological exploration and $167 million on launching extraction and processing, alongside compliance with environmental standards, use of Ukrainian labour and goods, and investment in local communities.

    Before mining can begin, the consortium must complete detailed geological studies to confirm the deposit’s commercial value and then finance the necessary infrastructure. Industry experts note that moving from exploration to full-scale production typically takes more than a decade.

    The Dobra project is expected to become one of the first initiatives implemented under the U.S.-Ukraine minerals partnership, following the launch of a joint reconstruction investment fund earlier this year.

  • EU steps up critical minerals policy but risks falling behind the US and China

    EU steps up critical minerals policy but risks falling behind the US and China

    The European Union has intensified efforts to strengthen critical mineral supply chains that underpin the energy transition, but analysts warn that Europe is moving more slowly and offering weaker support than the United States, leaving it exposed to China’s dominant position in global markets.

    China already controls much of the global supply of solar power components and dominates processing capacity for key battery and clean energy materials, including lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, rare earths and permanent magnets. According to Eurostat, 95% of EU rare earth imports in 2024 came from just three countries: China, Malaysia and Russia. Data from Wood Mackenzie shows China accounts for 32% of global lithium production and controls a further 18% through overseas projects, while holding 81% of global critical minerals processing capacity.

    This concentration creates significant risks for European clean energy developers, as over-reliance on a small group of suppliers increases exposure to licensing delays, export controls and sudden supply disruptions. Industry experts note that despite growing awareness among policymakers, Europe’s response remains fragmented and underpowered.

    To accelerate investment, the EU adopted the ResourceEU action plan in December 2025. Backed by €3 billion from the Critical Raw Materials Act, the plan aims to expand domestic extraction and refining, promote recycling, reduce dependence on dominant suppliers, speed up permitting and restrict scrap exports. The EU has set targets to extract 10% of its critical minerals needs domestically, host 40% of processing capacity within the bloc and reach a 15% recycling rate by 2030.

    However, analysts say the funding and policy tools fall short of a fully fledged industrial strategy. Investment momentum has weakened amid low commodity prices, and existing regulations have not yet made most European projects sufficiently bankable. Several high-profile projects, including the Chvaletice manganese project in the Czech Republic, have stalled due to permitting delays and grid access issues, despite being labelled strategic.

    By contrast, the United States has adopted a more aggressive, security-driven approach. Through measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the One Big Beautiful Bill and the use of the Defense Production Act, Washington offers tax credits, grants, loans, price guarantees and offtake support to accelerate mine-to-battery and mine-to-magnet supply chains. As a result, the US is advancing diversification faster than Europe.

    While projects such as LKAB’s rare earth and phosphorus processing plant in Sweden signal progress, experts caution that Europe’s public tools for de-risking investments remain limited compared with those of the US and China. Without stronger financial instruments, streamlined permitting and a greater focus on processing and recycling, Europe risks remaining vulnerable in the global race for critical minerals.

  • Ukraine’s lithium sector emerges as a strategic pillar for Europe’s critical minerals security

    Ukraine’s lithium sector emerges as a strategic pillar for Europe’s critical minerals security

    Ukraine’s lithium sector is drawing growing international attention as global supply chains for critical minerals are reshaped by geopolitical tensions and Europe’s push for greater resource independence. Investors increasingly view Ukrainian lithium not merely as an alternative source, but as part of a broader restructuring of supply chains that prioritises security, resilience and regional integration over lowest-cost production.

    At the centre of this shift is the Dobra lithium deposit in the Kirovohrad region, one of the most prominent hard-rock lithium prospects in continental Europe outside the Nordic countries. Pegmatite-hosted resources such as Dobra could offer European battery producers a closer and potentially more secure supply base compared with traditional producers in South America and Australia.

    Ukraine’s lithium ambitions align with the European Union’s critical raw materials strategy, which emphasises diversification and reduced dependence on a narrow group of suppliers. Pegmatite deposits, however, require different extraction and processing technologies than brine-based lithium operations, resulting in higher upfront capital costs and longer development timelines. These technical factors, combined with political and security risks, make project structuring and risk management central to investment decisions.

    The Dobra project is being advanced under a production sharing agreement rather than a conventional mining licence. Under this framework, the state retains a share of future revenues while investors gain operational control. In January 2026, authorities announced that a consortium led by Dobra Lithium Holdings committed a minimum of $179 million to the project, including $12 million earmarked for exploration and reserve verification. The remaining capital is expected to fund mine development and processing infrastructure, following successful resource validation.

    Analysts note that PSA frameworks are gaining traction in emerging markets as they allow governments to participate in strategic resource projects without direct capital expenditure, while offering investors greater flexibility and clearer risk allocation. For Ukraine, this structure is also intended to attract foreign capital and technology transfer at a time when access to financing remains constrained.

    From a geological perspective, Ukrainian lithium deposits differ from many global peers. Hard-rock pegmatite resources typically offer higher grades but require complex crushing, flotation and hydrometallurgical processing. Proximity to European markets partially offsets higher development costs by reducing transport distances and supporting supply chain resilience, a factor increasingly valued by battery manufacturers.

    Future development pathways depend heavily on security conditions and investor confidence. Under an accelerated stabilisation scenario, production could begin within four years, while a more cautious, phased approach could extend timelines to five or six years. A third, technology-driven pathway envisages modular and automated processing facilities that reduce on-site risks but require higher initial capital outlays.

    Demand fundamentals remain supportive. Europe’s electric vehicle expansion, grid-scale energy storage projects and manufacturing reshoring efforts are all expected to drive lithium consumption over the next decade. While lithium prices have proven volatile, European buyers are increasingly placing a premium on secure, transparent and ESG-compliant supply chains.

    Ultimately, Ukraine’s lithium sector represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Its success will depend on effective risk mitigation, regulatory stability, access to long-term financing and the ability to integrate into Europe’s evolving battery value chain. For investors with the appetite and expertise to navigate these challenges, Ukrainian lithium could become a strategically significant component of Europe’s critical minerals landscape.

  • Kazakhstan to study lithium potential near Caspian and Aral seas from 2027

    Kazakhstan to study lithium potential near Caspian and Aral seas from 2027

    Kazakhstan plans to launch large-scale geological studies between 2027 and 2029 to assess the potential for industrial lithium extraction in several regions of the country, the Ministry of Industry and Construction of Kazakhstan said in response to an inquiry from LS.

    The programme will focus on mineralized brines, saline lake waters and salt flats located near the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea, as well as subsurface resources in the Bayankol ore district. The aim is to determine whether these areas are suitable for commercial lithium production. The work will be carried out under the state geological exploration programme, with 600 million tenge allocated from the national budget.

    In parallel, geological assessment continues in Central Kalba. By 2027, specialists are expected to complete studies of areas prospective for lithium, as well as rare and rare earth metals within the Kalba–Narym zone.

    According to the ministry, there is a high probability of discovering new rare metal deposits in several regions, including northern Kazakhstan’s Kokshetau rare-metal province, western Kazakhstan’s Mugodzhar province with lithium-fluorine type granites, and the southeastern part of the Chingiz–Tarbagatai rare earth metallogenic zone in eastern Kazakhstan.

    The ministry also noted that lithium occurrences have already been confirmed in salt flats in the Aral Sea region and in Betpak-Dala, indicating tangible exploration potential in southern parts of the country.

  • Kazakhstan to explore new areas for lithium extraction with state-funded geological studies

    Kazakhstan to explore new areas for lithium extraction with state-funded geological studies

    Kazakhstan plans to expand its search for lithium resources by launching new geological studies across several regions of the country, the Ministry of Industry and Construction of Kazakhstan told LS Media.

    According to the ministry, state-funded exploration works are scheduled for 2027–2029 and will focus on mineralized brines, saline lake waters and salt flats in the Caspian and Aral Sea regions, as well as hard-rock formations in the Bayankol ore district. The objective is to determine whether these areas are suitable for commercial lithium extraction. The studies will be carried out as part of the national geological exploration program, with funding of 600 million tenge allocated from the state budget.

    In parallel, authorities expect to complete an assessment of Central Kalba in 2026. The work there is aimed at identifying areas prospective for lithium-bearing mineralization, as well as complex rare-metal and rare-earth mineralization within the Kalba–Narym zone.

    The ministry also highlighted significant potential for discovering new rare-earth deposits hosted in rare-metal granites and pegmatites. Promising targets include northern Kazakhstan near the Kokshetau rare-metal province, western Kazakhstan within the Mugodzhar rare-metal province, and eastern Kazakhstan at the southeastern end of the Chingiz–Tarbagatai rare-earth metallogenic zone.

    In addition, lithium occurrences have already been identified in salt flats across the Aral Sea region, Betpak-Dala and other parts of southern Kazakhstan, reinforcing expectations that the country could expand its role in the supply of critical battery minerals.

  • Battery storage boom lifts lithium demand outlook for 2026 despite lingering oversupply risks

    Battery storage boom lifts lithium demand outlook for 2026 despite lingering oversupply risks

    Rapid growth in battery energy storage is strengthening the outlook for lithium demand in 2026, raising expectations of a faster recovery for an industry that has struggled with oversupply since late 2022. Analysts say reforms in China’s power sector and surging global investment in data centres have driven stronger-than-expected demand for lithium used in stationary storage systems.

    China’s energy storage market expanded sharply in the second half of 2025, supported by policy changes and rising power system needs. According to analysts, demand growth from energy storage has already exceeded earlier forecasts, helping to offset weaker momentum in electric vehicle sales. Battery storage systems have become China’s most valuable clean-tech export, generating nearly $66 billion in sales in the first ten months of 2025, ahead of EV exports.

    Major banks now expect a tightening lithium market next year. Morgan Stanley forecasts a deficit of 80,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026, while UBS projects a smaller shortfall of 22,000 tonnes, compared with a surplus of 61,000 tonnes expected in 2025. Global lithium demand is projected to grow by 17% to 30% in 2026, broadly in line with supply growth of 19% to 34%, according to analysts.

    Prices rebounded sharply in the second half of 2025 after hitting multi-year lows earlier in the year, aided by Beijing’s pledge to rein in overcapacity and a temporary production halt at a major Chinese mine operated by CATL. Lithium carbonate prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to their highest level since November 2023 by the end of December. Analysts expect prices to range between 80,000 and 200,000 yuan per tonne in 2026.

    Energy storage is forecast to account for 31% of total lithium demand next year, up from 23% in 2025, gradually reducing the dominance of electric vehicle batteries. However, analysts caution that faster adoption of sodium-ion batteries for storage and a slowdown in EV sales could cap demand growth and limit further price increases.

  • Kyrgyzstan reviews major mining projects launched over the past year

    Kyrgyzstan reviews major mining projects launched over the past year

    At the start of the new year, Kyrgyzstan is taking stock of major mining projects implemented by domestic companies over the past period. One of the most significant developments came in August, when Kumtor Gold Company, one of the country’s largest subsoil users, launched underground gold mining at the Kumtor deposit in the Issyk-Kul region.

    At the same time, 147 tonnes of gold were added to the company’s balance sheet, providing enough reserves for 17 years of underground operations, which are being carried out alongside open-pit mining. Overall, the Kumtor mine is expected to remain in operation for at least another 40–50 years. The underground project is designed to minimize waste rock extraction and reduce environmental impact, including protecting local glaciers.

    Last year, Kumtor Gold Company also began processing tailings from the Kumtor tailings storage facility, expanding resource utilization. In August, several other mining enterprises were launched, including the Shah Tal gold mine in the Naryn region and the Kozho Kelen and Besh-Burkhan coal mines in the Osh region.

    In October, Kyrgyzgeology obtained a license to develop the Nasonovskoye polymetallic deposit in the Chui region, which is estimated to contain 751,000 tonnes of ore, 5.6 tonnes of gold and 4,600 tonnes of copper.

    Projects related to strategically important metals have received less public attention, though local media reported that a Kyrgyz-Chinese company for rare metals development was registered in April. At the INFOCM 2025 international forum on critical minerals in May, a representative of the Ministry of Natural Resources said Kyrgyzstan has 11 rare earth deposits, with Kutessay II among the largest, holding reserves of 63,300 tonnes.

  • Unexpected bid intensifies battle for control of Eurasian Resources Group

    Unexpected bid intensifies battle for control of Eurasian Resources Group

    A new twist has emerged in Kazakhstan’s mining sector after businessman Shahmurat Mutalip put forward an offer to acquire a 40% stake in Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), entering a prolonged shareholder dispute and challenging the position of the company’s chief executive, Shukhrat Ibragimov. According to the Financial Times, Mutalip has reached a preliminary agreement with the families of ERG co-founders Patokh Shodiev and the late Alexander Mashkevich to purchase their combined holdings for $1.4 billion, subject to the Ibrahimov family waiving its right of first refusal.

    ERG was founded in the 1990s on the basis of former state-owned mining assets and later became one of the most prominent post-Soviet companies to list in London. Today, ownership is split between the three founding families, each holding about 20%, and the government of Kazakhstan, which controls the remaining 40%. The talks are taking place amid rising international competition for metals critical to clean energy, artificial intelligence and industrial infrastructure, increasing the strategic value of ERG’s assets.

    Mutalip’s move has surprised the market, given his limited background in mining and his career roots in construction. His recent interest in large-scale resource assets, including a reported bid for a controlling stake in Kazzinc, has raised questions about financing and long-term strategy. At the same time, ERG continues to face financial pressure due to its reliance on loans from Russian state banks under Western sanctions, adding further uncertainty to the outcome of the ownership battle.

  • Portugal Emerges as Potential Hub for Critical Minerals as Exploration Intensifies

    Portugal Emerges as Potential Hub for Critical Minerals as Exploration Intensifies

    Europe is closely monitoring developments in Portugal as private companies carry out preliminary studies to assess the presence of critical minerals beneath the country’s surface. The growing interest is driven by the need to secure supplies of rare earths and other strategic elements essential for modern technologies, amid efforts by the European Union to reduce its dependence on China.

    Brussels has already fast-tracked several extractive projects linked to critical raw materials, and new geological data suggest that Portugal’s resource potential may be broader than previously assumed. According to Luís Martins, a geologist at Portugal’s National Laboratory for Energy and Geology (LNEC), the country is on the verge of a new mining-driven transformation. He noted that Portugal has strong expertise in mining and environmental management compared with many other European states.

    Exploration activities, including test drilling, are currently underway in parts of the Alentejo and the Northwest Transmontano regions, such as Moncorvo, an area with a long mining history. Martins stressed, however, that commercial extraction remains a distant prospect, explaining that rare earth elements are often associated with iron deposits, as seen in Moncorvo.

    In the Alentejo, areas including Monforte-Tinoca, Assumar, Crato-Arronches, and Penedo Gordo have already revealed the presence of highly sought-after elements. These include zircon, hafnium, titanium, niobium, tantalum, yttrium, and scandium. While not all of these minerals fall strictly within the rare earth category, many are classified as strategic or critical, heightening EU interest.

    Martins explained that rare earth elements comprise 17 chemical elements, including the 15 lanthanides as well as scandium and yttrium, which share similar chemical properties and often occur in the same deposits. These materials are vital for a wide range of industrial and technological applications due to characteristics such as magnetism, luminescence, and electrical resistance.

    The prospect of expanded mining activity raises concerns about environmental impacts, landscapes, and traditional rural livelihoods. Resistance has already been seen in northern Portugal, where communities have opposed lithium mining projects. Despite this, Martins believes economic considerations are likely to prevail. He pointed to two major untapped gold deposits in Montemor and Jales/Gralheira, which together could yield up to one million ounces of gold, currently valued at approximately 3.6 billion euros.

  • Understanding Critical Infrastructure in Contemporary Mineral Markets: Romania’s Rare Earth Test Case

    Understanding Critical Infrastructure in Contemporary Mineral Markets: Romania’s Rare Earth Test Case

    As Europe confronts growing vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains, processing infrastructure has emerged as the decisive bottleneck separating genuine industrial autonomy from continued dependence on geographically concentrated production hubs. Within this context, Romania’s rare earth processing initiative stands as a litmus test for Europe’s ability to translate strategic policy into operational capability.

    The planned rare earth processing facility at Feldioara is more than a standalone industrial project. It reflects a deliberate shift in European thinking, recognising that sovereignty over critical materials depends less on mining alone and more on control of midstream processing and refining. With China controlling roughly 80% of global rare earth refining capacity, European policymakers have identified downstream infrastructure as the most effective leverage point to rebalance supply chains.

    Romania’s advantage lies in its legacy nuclear infrastructure. The Feldioara site builds on decades of uranium concentrate processing expertise under Nuclearelectrica and its subsidiary FPCU, offering an existing base of metallurgical know-how, regulatory compliance systems, and a trained technical workforce. This significantly shortens development timelines compared with greenfield processing projects and reduces execution risk in a sector where technical complexity has derailed many Western initiatives.

    Strategically, the project aligns closely with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act and related funding instruments, which prioritise processing, recycling, and midstream integration over pure extraction. By focusing on processing capacity capable of handling material from multiple upstream sources, Romania positions itself as a regional hub rather than a single-mine solution. This model enhances resilience and supports European industries spanning defence, electrification, energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing.

    The joint venture structure between state-owned FPCU and Critical Metals Corp reflects a broader European experiment in public–private governance for strategic infrastructure. State participation anchors the project within EU strategic autonomy objectives, while private-sector involvement brings market access, operational expertise, and commercial discipline. However, this structure also places a premium on transparent governance, clear decision-making authority, and alignment between commercial incentives and strategic goals.

    Supply integration with the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland adds a further geopolitical dimension. The Greenland–Romania corridor represents a fully Western-aligned alternative to Chinese processing routes, but it also introduces technical challenges. Eudialyte-hosted rare earth mineralisation requires specialised processing flowsheets, demanding innovation, pilot-scale testing, and cost discipline to remain competitive against established Asian processors.

    Ultimately, the Feldioara project encapsulates the broader European dilemma in critical minerals. Policy ambition is now clear, financing tools are emerging, and geopolitical incentives are strong. The remaining question is execution. Success would validate Europe’s shift from regulatory aspiration to industrial governance, creating a replicable model for other critical materials. Failure would reinforce the structural challenges that have long constrained Western processing capacity.