As of 1 January 2026, the European Union has implemented a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that will significantly affect imports from Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This regulation requires EU importers to pay for the embedded emissions in goods imported from these nations, marking a pivotal shift in trade dynamics. In 2025, the total CBAM-covered exports from these five countries to the EU amounted to approximately $1.14 billion (€1.01 billion), which represents about 3% of their combined exports to the EU. The estimated payment for carbon emissions under this new regulation is projected to be €194.7 million, with Kazakhstan responsible for 63% of this amount and Uzbekistan for 31%.
One of the unique aspects of the CBAM is that the precise payment amounts will not be determined until the end of 2027. This delay is due to the requirement for emissions verification, which means that exporters must prepare verified data in advance to ensure compliance. EU importers are mandated to declare their verified emissions for 2026 by 30 September 2027. This timeline places a significant burden on exporters, as actual emissions that fall below the EU’s default values can reduce their overall payment obligations.
The introduction of the CBAM presents both challenges and opportunities for Central Asian exporters. While the financial implications of the tax could strain trade relations, it also encourages countries to enhance their environmental practices and reduce carbon footprints. As the EU continues to prioritise sustainability in its trade policies, Central Asian nations must adapt to these changes to maintain their export levels and competitiveness in the European market. The region’s response to the CBAM will be critical in shaping its future trade dynamics with the EU, necessitating a strategic approach to emissions reporting and verification processes.
