The tungsten market is experiencing a significant price surge, with prices increasing by 310% from January to July 2026, driven by Chinese export controls and rising military demand. According to a recent report from S&P Global, global first-use tungsten demand is projected to rise from approximately 162,000 tonnes of WO₃ in 2025 to 180,000 tonnes by 2030 and 202,000 tonnes by 2035. China remains the dominant player in the tungsten market, having produced 67,000 tonnes of the total 85,000 tonnes mined globally in 2025 and controlling about 85% of APT refining capacity.
Despite the announcement of 11 new projects that could add about 20,000 tonnes of annual mine capacity outside China by 2030, S&P Global estimates a primary mine supply gap of 16,000 tonnes ex-China by 2030. This gap is concerning, especially as the price of tungsten APT has surged from approximately US$83/kg WO₃ in January 2026 to US$340/kg in July 2026. While the price increase has surpassed the theoretical investment hurdle for new supply, the real challenge lies in the development bottlenecks related to financing, permitting, and construction.
The report highlights several key projects that could potentially deliver new tungsten supply, including the Sangdong project in South Korea, Hemerdon in the UK, and Northern Katpar in Kazakhstan. However, the timeline for these projects remains uncertain, and their success is contingent upon various factors, including financing and regulatory approvals.
Tungsten is classified as a critical mineral due to its unique properties, which make it essential for various applications, including defence, industrial tools, and technology. The rising prices reflect a complex interplay of supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions, and strategic stockpiling, particularly in the context of US-China relations. As the US prepares to impose significant restrictions on tungsten imports from certain countries in 2027, the market is likely to face further challenges in meeting demand.
While the current price levels may incentivise new tungsten supply, the industry faces significant hurdles in terms of project financing and development timelines. The tungsten market is at a critical juncture, with supply constraints likely to persist unless substantial investments and regulatory support are provided to facilitate new production.
In a landscape marked by increasing geopolitical tensions and a growing emphasis on domestic production, Almonty Industries, Aurubis, and MP Materials are emerging as key players in the mining sector, benefiting significantly from substantial financial backing from Washington and Brussels. The recent US decision to prohibit the export of tungsten waste and scrap without a licence highlights the strategic importance of tungsten, particularly as Almonty Industries prepares to ramp up operations at its Sangdong mine in South Korea. This mine, which is set to begin processing in July, boasts nearly 140,000 tonnes of ore valued at approximately USD 68 million. Almonty is well-positioned to address the ongoing supply shortage, with a remarkable 498% revenue increase to CAD 43 million and a gross margin of 60.7% reported in their latest quarterly figures. The company’s robust cash position of CAD 1.2 billion, bolstered by an USD 800 million senior notes offering, allows for significant investments, including a planned expansion of production capacity.
Meanwhile, Aurubis, the Hamburg-based copper smelter, is navigating a complex year, marked by high metal prices and strong demand for sulphuric acid, alongside delays in its US expansion project. The company reported a 31% increase in operating earnings before tax (EBT) to EUR 374 million for the first nine months of the 2025/26 financial year, driven by rising copper prices and increased revenue from sulphuric acid. However, setbacks in the Richmond project have tempered investor enthusiasm, with full ramp-up now expected to be delayed by six months.
On the other hand, MP Materials is showcasing operational progress with a 41% increase in NdPr production and a 127% rise in sales volume. Despite a GAAP loss of USD 20.3 million, the company is securing future revenues through strategic supply contracts with the US Department of Defense, which guarantees a minimum price for NdPr over the next decade. The company is also making strides in its magnet production, with expectations of over 1,000 tonnes of NdPr production in the upcoming quarter.
The political support from both the US and EU is proving beneficial for these companies, as they navigate the complexities of the market. Almonty Industries is leveraging its strategic tungsten asset, while Aurubis is focused on solid operational performance despite expansion delays. MP Materials is capitalising on lucrative contracts and production advancements, although its share valuation remains a concern as market expectations may be overly optimistic. Overall, while the commodities boom is celebrated in stock markets, the path to sustained success for these companies is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.
Kazakhstan has officially commenced the practical implementation of the Northern Katpar tungsten project, located in the Karaganda Region, as announced by the regional akimat. This significant initiative is part of a broader strategy to develop one of the world’s largest tungsten deposits, alongside the Verkhne-Kairakty deposit. Preparatory work has been ongoing for the past two months, focusing on the establishment of production sites, access roads, and essential field infrastructure, complemented by geodetic surveys. A comprehensive feasibility study is currently in progress and is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2027.
Deputy Akim of Karaganda Region, Shyngys Suyunbayev, highlighted the project’s importance, stating that it will not only attract foreign investment but also provide a substantial economic boost to the Shet District. The project is projected to create approximately 1,200 new jobs upon commissioning. Dominic Heaton, CEO of Cove Kaz Capital Group, emphasized that the investor’s vision extends beyond mere deposit development; it aims to establish a modern, internationally competitive tungsten mining and processing industry within Kazakhstan.
The Northern Katpar project is set to foster domestic value addition through processing, alongside skills development and enhanced participation of Kazakh companies in the supply chain. Daniyar Idrisov, Chief Investment and Strategy Officer at Tau-Ken Samruk, noted that the partners are committed to creating a full production cycle, encompassing everything from ore extraction to metallurgical processing and the production of high-value tungsten products.
Total investment in the development of both deposits and the necessary mining and processing infrastructure is estimated at around $1.1 billion. The project is expected to yield approximately 12,000 tons of tungsten products annually, which would account for about 15% of current global tungsten production, according to the regional akimat. The initiative not only focuses on ore extraction and beneficiation but also aims for deep processing within Kazakhstan, thereby establishing a new production chain in the critical minerals sector.
According to the current timeline, major construction activities are projected to commence in 2028, with commissioning works slated for 2029. This ambitious project is poised to significantly enhance Kazakhstan’s position in the global tungsten market while providing economic opportunities for the local population.
Tungsten West (AIM:TUN) has announced a significant investment of up to $97 million (£71 million) from the UK Government to restart production at the historic Hemerdon tungsten and tin mine located in Devon. This funding, which encompasses both equity and debt, is sourced from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) and is aimed at revitalising the mine to achieve full production capacity, thereby establishing a secure domestic supply of tungsten—a critical mineral vital for high-technology supply chains, aerospace, energy, and defence sectors.
The Hemerdon mine has a storied history, having supplied essential tungsten for military and defence efforts during both World Wars. Mining activities persisted intermittently until 1944, when operations ceased. The recent government investment is seen as a strategic move to bolster the UK’s mineral supply chain, particularly in the context of national security and economic growth. Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey, emphasised that this initiative will not only provide crucial minerals to British industries but also safeguard well-paid jobs across the UK, aligning with the government’s commitment to stimulate growth in all regions.
In conjunction with the investment, Tungsten West and the NWF have established a shareholder relationship agreement, allowing the NWF to nominate a non-executive director to Tungsten West’s board. This partnership is expected to facilitate the resumption of full production at Hemerdon, which is projected to create approximately 350 direct jobs.
Production at the Hemerdon site is set to commence soon, with tungsten and tin concentrates already being produced in the past month as final tests are conducted. The company is also in discussions with a major downstream tungsten refiner to enhance its operational capabilities. Jeff Court, CEO of Tungsten West, remarked on the significance of the Hemerdon resource, describing it as a world-class, low-cost, and long-life tungsten and tin asset that will support the UK’s national interests in the long term.
Despite previous challenges in restarting the mine, including cost overruns and fluctuating prices, the recent investment has invigorated Tungsten West’s stock, which surged by approximately 17% to 50.25 pence per share, valuing the company at around £627 million ($855 million) as of midday trading in London. This positive market response indicates strong investor confidence in the future of the Hemerdon mine and its role in the UK’s critical minerals landscape.
Esil-Mining, a subsidiary of the British company Resources Enterprise Limited, is set to begin tungsten extraction at the Aksoран deposit in the North Kazakhstan region in 2028. This information is detailed in an environmental impact report associated with the revised mining plan, which was reviewed by the Qazba.kz portal.
According to the project documentation, preparatory and capital mining works are scheduled for 2027, with industrial ore extraction commencing the following year. By this time, a processing plant is also expected to be operational.
The deposit will be mined using underground methods, which are projected to provide maximum economic efficiency compared to open-pit or combined mining techniques. The mine’s operational lifespan is estimated at 16 years, with 13 years dedicated to extraction. Once at full capacity, the site will produce approximately 1 million tonnes of ore annually.
The operational reserves of the deposit are reported to be 13.9 million tonnes of ore, with a tungsten trioxide content of 0.45%, equating to around 61.9 thousand tonnes of the metal. Additionally, the ore contains a by-product of molybdenum, estimated at about 3.8 thousand tonnes.
The site is located within the protective zone of the Kokshetau National Park, where a ban on geological exploration and extraction has been in place since 2021. However, Esil-Mining is exempt from this restriction as it obtained the necessary permits in 2020, prior to the amendments coming into force, allowing the company to operate in compliance with the law.
Nonetheless, the proximity to a protected natural area imposes certain limitations on the operator. For instance, only electric equipment is to be used in the mining operations. All machinery, except for the watering underground machine and surface transport, will also be electrically powered.
Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC, a U.S.-based company dedicated to the development of critical mineral resources in Kazakhstan, has announced the commencement of a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for its Northern Katpar tungsten project. The study, which is set to begin in July 2026 and conclude by the end of 2027, aims to support a Final Investment Decision and meet the due diligence requirements of potential financing partners, including U.S. financial institutions. The Northern Katpar project is held by Severniy Katpar LLP, in which Cove Kaz holds a 70% controlling interest.
The engagement of top global engineering firms marks a significant step in the project’s development. DRA Global has been appointed as the lead contractor, responsible for mineral processing, while ERM will oversee geology, mine planning, and environmental frameworks. Knight Piésold will provide expertise in geotechnical and hydrological services. This consortium of contractors will work alongside Cove Kaz’s experienced in-house team, led by CEO Dominic Heaton, who has a proven track record in tungsten mining.
The DFS will outline the overall mine plan for Northern Katpar and inform the construction of a refinery designed to produce ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten product. The project is positioned to address the current global tungsten supply deficit, which is particularly acute given the systemic shortages that existing mines cannot meet. With significant undeveloped tungsten resources, the Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty deposits are expected to contribute approximately 12,000 metric tonnes per annum to global production, representing a substantial share of the market. Cove Kaz Capital Group aims to establish a long-term, secure supply of tungsten to support critical industrial and high-technology applications.
Spain is strengthening its position in the European critical minerals supply chain through a new 2026-2030 Action Plan for the Sustainable Management of Mineral Raw Materials, backed by €414 million in public investment to support exploration, mining, processing and innovation.
The initiative includes the launch of the National Mineral Exploration Program (PNEM), with €182 million allocated to mineral exploration aimed at unlocking the country’s resource potential and supporting exploration companies. The strategy also introduces 34 measures covering regulatory reform, institutional coordination, research, innovation and the development of the domestic mining value chain.
The plan aligns with the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which seeks to increase domestic extraction, processing and recycling of strategic minerals to reduce Europe’s dependence on external suppliers.
Tin project advances in Andalucía
Among the projects expected to benefit is Elementos’ Oropesa Tin Project in the Andalucía region, Spain’s largest mining jurisdiction, which accounts for around 90% of the country’s metallic mining production.
The project has been designated as being of “Overriding Public Interest” by the regional government and has been included in Andalucía’s Project Accelerator Unit, recognising its economic, environmental and social importance.
Elementos believes Oropesa could eventually supply around 10% of the European Union’s tin demand, while a proposed domestic smelting facility would allow more than 10% of EU tin consumption to be processed within Spain. The company has signed an option agreement to acquire up to a 50% interest in the nearby Robledallano tin smelter, supporting downstream processing and reducing transport costs and emissions.
The Oropesa project hosts an ore reserve of 15.9 million tonnes grading 0.36% tin and a mineral resource of 19.6 million tonnes at 0.39% tin, with a definitive feasibility study outlining a projected 12-year mine life.
Tungsten production expands
EQ Resources is also strengthening Spain’s strategic minerals sector through its Barruecopardo tungsten mine, one of the largest tungsten operations outside China, Russia and North Korea.
The company produced approximately 1,680 tonnes of tungsten trioxide (WO₃) concentrate during FY2025 and aims to increase annual production to 3,000-3,500 tonnes across its operations in Spain and Australia.
In June 2026, EQ Resources launched a 36-hole drilling programme at Barruecopardo to extend the mine’s life and evaluate deeper mineralisation. The project currently hosts a 22.9 million tonne resource grading 0.2% WO₃ with an estimated mine life of approximately nine years.
With around 85% of global tungsten supply currently originating from China, Spain’s expanding production is expected to contribute to efforts to diversify global supply chains for this critical mineral.
Spain’s new investment programme, together with ongoing permitting reforms and support for downstream processing, is expected to strengthen the country’s role as a strategic supplier of critical minerals within the European Union.
Central Asia and Mongolia will remain resilient to geopolitical shocks and record the highest growth rates of the EBRD countries of operation in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report published on 3 June 2026, by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The combined economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are projected to grow by 5.6% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027.
These are compelling headline figures. Yet beneath them lies a more consequential story—one that the OECD’s March 2026 report, Advancing Security and Transparency for the Governance of Critical Raw Materials in Central Asia, articulates with rare precision: the region is not merely growing; it is repositioning itself at the very heart of the global critical raw materials race.
The mining sector is no longer a background variable in Central Asia’s development story. It is the plot itself.
MINEX Asia 2026 is where it gets real. Join EBRD and OECD peers presenting on Kazakhstan’s scale, Tajikistan’s green pivot, Uzbekistan’s processing ambitions—and the governance gaps that determine success.
The Regional Narrative: Resilience With Structural Depth
Growth prospects remain robust but are increasingly dependent on the pace of domestic reforms and efforts to strengthen resilience to external shocks. Strong domestic consumption, rising real wages, and robust capital investment are real. But so are the fault lines: downside risks include energy price volatility, supply-chain disruptions, economic sanctions, and slower growth in the region’s largest trading and economic partners, Russia and China.
The OECD note adds a structural dimension that the growth forecasts alone cannot convey. Central Asia’s substantial yet untapped resource base, combined with its location between major markets in Europe and Asia, raises the region’s relevance in CRM geopolitics and efforts to diversify global supply chains. This is a geostrategic statement. The region holds extraordinary assets: Kazakhstan, already the world’s largest producer of uranium, produces and processes around twenty of the 34 CRMs included on the European Union’s official list. The Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan both host some of the world’s largest antimony reserves. Uzbekistan possesses some of the largest copper reserves globally and is advancing lithium and molybdenum production.
Taken together, these endowments amount to a critical minerals portfolio of exceptional strategic depth. Whether the region can translate that portfolio into durable prosperity is the central question of the coming decade.
Country by Country: Where the Headlines Don’t Tell the Full Story
Tajikistan: Gold and Strategic Minerals
Tajikistan: Gold and Strategic Minerals
Tajikistan’s economic performance continues to confound those who underestimate it. In March 2026, Moody’s upgraded Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook, citing the country’s continued economic resilience. The EBRD projects growth easing to 7.9 per cent in 2026 — still remarkable for a landlocked, remittance-dependent economy navigating elevated regional volatility.
The mining dimension is crucial. Gold remains the cornerstone of export revenue and fiscal stability, and Tajikistan’s antimony sector is poised for a structural step-change. Tajikistan possesses the world’s second largest antimony reserves, and China’s effective ban on antimony exports to the US and EU provides a significant window of opportunity. Together, France and Belgium accounted for 77% of Tajikistan’s antimony exports in 2024. With TALCO nearing completion of a new antimony metallurgical plant, Dushanbe is finally beginning to capture processing value rather than simply shipping raw material.
But what I find most intriguing about Tajikistan’s trajectory is the emerging convergence of green energy and artificial intelligence with its mining ambitions. The Rogun Hydropower Project — set to have an annual capacity of over 3,600 megawatts once fully operational — would cover most of Tajikistan’s domestic consumption and create the conditions for green aluminium production, with approximately 70 per cent of output earmarked for export to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Cheap, clean electricity is not merely an industrial asset — it is the foundation for competitive mining, smelting, and increasingly, data infrastructure.
Tajikistan has initiated groundbreaking infrastructure projects, including the launch of “Area AI” — the world’s first dedicated AI Zone — a technopark and cluster designed to serve as a hub for research, development, and application of AI technologies. The country has forged partnerships with international tech firms including Perplexity AI, Google DeepMind, Yotta and Presight to accelerate technology transfer and innovation. The government has declared 2025–2030 the “Years of Digital Economy and Innovation Development.” Taken alongside the Rogun-powered industrial ambitions, this is Tajikistan’s bid to become not just a minerals supplier but a genuinely integrated green industrial economy — using AI and clean energy together to escape the extractive trap.
The key vulnerability remains Tajikistan’s dependence on Russia, where a slowdown would depress the remittance inflows that underpin household incomes. That risk is real and should not be minimised. But the strategic direction of travel is clear — and it is more ambitious than most Western observers appreciate.
Kyrgyzstan: The Kumtor Imperative and Exploration Needs
Kyrgyzstan remains the region’s most dramatic case study in resource-dependent growth. Kumtor Gold Company — nationalised in 2022 after nearly three decades of Canadian stewardship — generated net profit exceeding USD 706 million in 2025, contributes 10–15 per cent of GDP, and represents nearly two-thirds of the country’s mineral exports. The March 2025 discovery of an additional 147 tonnes of gold reserves extended the mine’s productive life to at least another 17 years.
Underground mining operations, launched in August 2025, are transformative. At current gold prices hovering above USD 4,500 per ounce, Kumtor’s economics are exceptional — and the government’s plan to process tailings estimated to contain over 100 tonnes of gold adds further upside. Fixed capital investment rose by 25.5 per cent year on year thanks to strong investment in infrastructure, energy and housing.
Yet the near-term outlook has darkened. The European Union’s 20th sanctions package, announced in late April, restricts exports of dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan and tightens controls on its financial and logistics sectors. The EBRD has revised its 2026 growth forecast down to 8.7 per cent as a result. This is a significant geopolitical constraint on what would otherwise be an exceptionally strong growth story — and it underscores the OECD’s broader finding that regulatory unpredictability and governance gaps impose real costs on the region’s investment attractiveness.
The OECD note also flags a structural vulnerability that sits beneath the Kumtor euphoria: limited exploration since independence means that the Kumtor mine, accounting for 90% of the Kyrgyz gold exports, is set to close in 2031 due to reserves depletion — and the lack of exploration since independence will make it harder to offset this decline quickly. The reserve discovery of 2025 has bought time but not resolved the underlying fragility.
Kazakhstan: Scale, Strategy, and Industrial Output
Kazakhstan’s mining profile is defined by scale and global strategic significance. The country holds the world’s largest chromium reserves, accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global uranium output, and produces massive quantities of refined copper, largely exported to major industrial buyers like China and Türkiye.
Graphite is a high-potential sector for Kazakhstan. With the exploitation of its Sarytogan deposit — added to the EU’s list of strategic raw material projects and reported to contain 30% of the world’s graphite reserves — Kazakhstan is expecting to become a crucial player on the world graphite market.
The tungsten story is equally striking. Kazakhstan holds roughly 2 million tonnes of tungsten resources out of approximately 3.6 million tonnes of global reserves. A joint venture between Kazakhstan’s Tau-Ken Samruk and US-based Cove Kaz Capital Group has been formed to develop the Severniy Katpar tungsten project, with the US International Development Finance Corporation issuing Letters of Interest for up to USD 700 million in potential financing — marking Washington’s most significant entry yet into the region’s critical minerals sector.
Yet the near-term picture carries a real cautionary note. In Kazakhstan, the extractive industry contracted by 11.4 per cent year on year in Q1 2026 following disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline and an incident at the Tengiz oil field. The EBRD projects Kazakhstan’s GDP growth moderating to 4.7 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027 — the lowest in the region, reflecting the inherent vulnerability of commodity-led economies to infrastructure and logistics shocks.
Uzbekistan: The Ambitious Reformer
Uzbekistan’s ambitions deserve particular attention. The country is the world’s fifth-largest uranium supplier, a top-ten gold producer, and is rapidly positioning itself as a critical minerals investment destination. Uzbekistan has actively signed Memorandums of Understanding with Western partners, including the United States, for securing supply chains in the mining and processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. The government has also launched massive industrial initiatives to bolster its critical minerals sector.
The Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex (AMMC) and its specialised subsidiaries targeting tungsten, molybdenum, rhenium, lithium, and graphite signal a genuine strategic shift from raw extraction towards value-added processing. Whether governance and transparency standards keep pace with ambition will be the decisive variable.
The Structural Challenge: From Resource Extraction to Value Creation
Both the EBRD and the OECD converge on a single, uncomfortable truth: Central Asia’s growth is impressive, but its mining sectors remain structurally exposed. The OECD note identifies several systemic vulnerabilities that macro-growth figures obscure.
On reserves reporting: Most countries still operate on Soviet-era GKZ classification systems that differ fundamentally from international CRIRSCO standards — creating information asymmetries that deter sophisticated investors and complicate due diligence. Kazakhstan has made progress through its KAZRC system; other regional peers have barely started.
On foreign investment dynamics: Foreign actors, predominantly Chinese, actively invest in Central Asia’s mining industry. China has been a primary investor in the mining sectors of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, and is increasing its presence in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, not only by investing in extraction facilities but also by supporting the development of initial processing capabilities. This creates a strong strategic dependency that the region’s governments are increasingly aware of — and that Western partners, including the EU, UK, and US, are now actively looking to balance through alternative commercial partnerships.
On the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR): Traffic along the corridor (the Middle Corridor) has increased dramatically as exporters seek reliable East–West trade alternatives. Kazakhstan in particular has long relied on the corridor for its mineral, chemical, and agricultural exports, with a substantial portion of its uranium exports to Western markets utilising this bypass route. This corridor is central to the region’s ability to diversify export markets.
On ESG and governance: The OECD is frank: mining in the region is still heavily influenced by large state-owned enterprises with overlapping regulatory and commercial roles, needing stronger occupational health and safety oversight and remediation of legacy environmental risks. These are not peripheral concerns — they are the conditions on which Western investment and international supply chain partnerships will ultimately be conditioned.
The Strategic Opportunity
The OECD projects global demand for many critical raw materials to increase multifold over the coming decades to meet the needs of the green and digital transitions. Central Asia sits atop a significant share of the reserves that will need to come online to meet that demand. The region holds massive global shares of manganese ore, chromium, lead, zinc, titanium, aluminium, copper, cobalt, and molybdenum.
That is an extraordinary endowment. Translating it into durable prosperity requires three things that remain in genuinely short supply across the region: transparent governance, world-class ESG practice, and the institutional capacity to negotiate from strength with both regional and global partners.
This is precisely why platforms like the MINEX Forum matter. The conversation between producers, investors, policymakers, and development finance institutions that happens at these gatherings is not peripheral to the critical minerals agenda. It is where the terms of engagement are shaped.
Conclusion: Cautious Optimism, Clear Conditions
The EBRD’s projection of robust regional growth is credible. The OECD’s assessment of the region’s critical minerals potential is genuinely exciting. But both institutions are equally clear-eyed about the conditions that must be met for that potential to be realised responsibly.
Central Asia’s mining sectors are not simply economic contributors. They are strategic assets in the most consequential industrial transformation of our era. Their management — balancing extraction with environmental stewardship, concentrating revenue into productive capital formation, building institutional capacity, and securing diversified partnerships — will determine whether current growth translates into sustainable prosperity or rehearses the resource curse that has constrained other commodity-rich regions.
The next chapter will be written in mining offices, government ministries, and international forums across Dushanbe, Bishkek, Astana, Tashkent, and Ulaanbaatar. We should be not merely watching — we should be in the room.
References:
Central Asia and Mongolia to see highest economic growth in the EBRD regions
Arthur Poliakov is the Managing Director of the United Kingdom-based company Advantix Ltd and the Executive Chairman and founder of the MINEX Forum. He has over 30 years of experience in international business communications, event management, and natural resource markets.
He is currently organising the upcoming 12th MINEX Asia Forum (24–25 June 2026, Ankara, Turkey), the 10th MINEX Europe Forum (28–30 October 2026, Trim, Ireland), and the 14th MINEX Eurasia Conference (30 November 2026, London, United Kingdom).
On 18 March the US Commercial Service hosted a webinar featuring experts from the Kazakh government and industry. The central message was clear: Kazakhstan is no longer presenting itself simply as a resource-rich country. It is actively seeking to become a more significant destination for investment, processing, industrial partnerships and long-term supply chain co-operation.
If you are tracking the global energy transition and supply chain security, this is a market that demands your attention. Here are my biggest takeaways from the session:
A market defined by scale, ambition and strategic importance
Kazakhstan’s resource base remains one of its greatest strengths. Speakers highlighted that mining and metallurgy continue to play a major role in the national economy, while reforms are being introduced to improve transparency, modernise infrastructure and create a more attractive environment for foreign investors.
Particular attention was given to coal, mining and critical minerals as sectors with major growth potential. Kazakhstan is pursuing a pragmatic approach to energy development, combining its natural resource base with efforts to attract technology, financing and international partners. For U.S. companies, this is increasingly being framed not only as a commercial opportunity, but also as a chance to help build more resilient allied supply chains.
The Sheer Scale of the Resource Opportunity
Kazakhstan holds a formidable position on the global energy map, but it’s the untapped potential that is most striking:
Massive Reserves: The country sits on 33 billion tonnes of coal reserves, ranking 8th globally—enough to sustain production for over 300 years.
Cost Advantages: Kazakh coal prices hover around $25 to $50 per tonne—a fraction of the cost in other global markets. Furthermore, the cost of geological exploration is incredibly low at just $11 per square kilometre, compared to $167 in Australia and $203 in Canada.
The Coal Chemistry Boom: Currently, only 3% of Kazakhstan’s coal is processed. Shifting towards deep processing (synthetic fuels, ammonia, urea, methanol) represents a $25 billion untapped market.
Modernising the Energy Grid
As power demand surges—driven by industrialisation and the rise of AI—Kazakhstan is heavily focussed on modernising its infrastructure. The Ministry of Energy plans to introduce 26 gigawatts of new power capacity over the next decade. This includes a near-term plan to add 7.6 GW of new coal-fired capacity, requiring an estimated $16 billion in investment by 2030. The government is actively seeking technological partnerships for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and ultra-supercritical boiler technologies to ensure this growth aligns with clean energy standards.
Critical minerals are becoming central to the conversation
One of the most interesting aspects of the discussion was the growing focus on critical minerals and rare earth-related opportunities.
Kazakhstan is developing a more comprehensive strategy for critical raw materials, with plans to define priority minerals, support processing and encourage higher-value production. The direction of travel is clear: the country wants to move further up the value chain and become more than simply an exporter of raw materials.
This was particularly relevant in light of the tungsten discussion that followed.
Looking ahead to 14-16 April: MINEX Kazakhstan Forum in Astana
The next important date in the calendar is 15 April, when Julie M. Stufft , U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Kazakhstan, will speak at the strategy session on Critical Minerals and Global Strategic Alliances at the 16th MINEX Kazakhstan Forum in Astana.
Also speaking will be Dominic Heaton Dominic Heaton, CEO of Cove Kaz Capital Group, who will present the Severniy Katpar case study.
This is especially significant because Severniy Katpar and Verkhnee Kairakty together hold 1.4 million tonnes of tungsten trioxide under JORC standards, representing around 70% of Kazakhstan’s total tungsten reserves. The project involves an estimated $1.1 billion joint venture investment, with potential support from U.S. EXIM and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation totalling up to $1.6 billion.
That level of financial and diplomatic backing underlines how strategically important this project could become, not only for Kazakhstan, but also for broader allied efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Why these matters
What stood out most from the 18 March webinar was the alignment now emerging between Kazakhstan’s resource ambitions and international demand for secure, diversified supply chains.
Kazakhstan offers scale, geological potential and a strategic location between major markets. The United States and other partners bring financing, technology and industrial expertise. If those elements come together effectively, the result could be a new phase of co-operation built around mining, processing, infrastructure and critical minerals development.
For anyone following energy security, industrial policy or strategic resource investment, Kazakhstan is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The webinar made that case convincingly. The 15 April MINEX Forun sessions should offer an important next step in showing how these opportunities may translate into practical projects and partnerships.
Kazakhstan has emerged as the world’s third-largest tungsten producer following the launch of the Bogutinskoye deposit, marking a significant shift in global supply dynamics. The development comes amid a sharp increase in tungsten prices, which surged by 557% by early March 2026 after China imposed export restrictions on the metal in February 2025.
According to recent analysis by Kursiv Research, tungsten concentrates entered Kazakhstan’s export portfolio for the first time in 2025. The country exported 3.7 thousand tonnes of tungsten ore and concentrates, generating $71 million in revenue, with all shipments directed to China. Despite its relatively modest ranking at 71st place in Kazakhstan’s export structure, tungsten has quickly become a strategically important commodity.
The Bogutinskoye project, operated by Zhetysu Tungsten and backed by Hong Kong-based Jiaxin International Resources Investment, has played a central role in this development. The processing plant produces a 65% concentrate, with total investment commitments reaching $450 million. Plans are also underway to develop downstream processing capacity, including a $100 million project to produce ammonium paratungstate, a higher-value tungsten product.
Data from the US Geological Survey confirms Kazakhstan’s rapid ascent in the sector. In 2025, the country produced approximately 2.4 thousand tonnes of tungsten (in metal equivalent), placing it behind China and Vietnam. The expansion of production capacity and ongoing investment projects are expected to further strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in the global market.
Tungsten’s strategic importance has grown significantly in recent years, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions. The metal remains on the US list of critical minerals, essential for defence, construction, and high-tech manufacturing. China continues to dominate global supply, accounting for nearly 79% of production in 2025, while also tightening export controls in response to trade measures from the United States.
In response, the US has intensified efforts to diversify supply chains through international partnerships. A key development is the joint venture between Kazakhstan’s Tau-Ken Samruk and US-based Cove Capital to develop the Upper Kairakty and Northern Katpar deposits. The project, with an estimated investment of $1.1 billion, is expected to significantly boost Kazakhstan’s production of ammonium paratungstate and could position the country as the world’s second-largest producer of this material.
The agreement reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical minerals, with both Western and Chinese companies seeking access to Kazakhstan’s resource base. Analysts note that rising prices and supply restrictions have accelerated investment activity and heightened strategic interest in the region.
In parallel, Kazakhstan is strengthening state control over critical mineral resources, with legislative changes expected in 2026 to grant priority extraction rights to the national mining company. Private sector players are also advancing new projects, including the development of the Drozhilovskoye deposit with financing from the US Export-Import Bank.
As global demand for critical minerals continues to rise, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a key supplier in an increasingly competitive and politically sensitive market.
