The recently ratified investment agreement between Ukraine and the United States, championed by US President Donald Trump, is not anticipated to deliver tangible results for at least a decade, experts told the Financial Times.
The agreement, approved by Ukraine’s parliament on May 8, outlines the establishment of a joint “reconstruction investment fund” to support future mining and energy projects. Despite optimism, industry leaders warn that substantial challenges lie ahead, including Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine, heavily damaged infrastructure, restricted Soviet-era geological data, corruption risks, and unexploded ordnance contamination.
According to Eric Rasmussen, former head of natural resources at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, “It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about.” Peter Bryant of the advisory group Clareo echoed these sentiments, stating that the deal “does little to de-risk the supply chain in the next 10 years.”
Ukraine boasts significant natural resources, including iron ore, coal, lithium, graphite, and titanium-bearing ores. It is also Europe’s third-largest gas producer. While oil and gas fields may be quicker to develop, mining projects are expected to face lengthy geological exploration before reaching feasibility.
Ukrainian Minister Yulia Svyrydenko mentioned that the reconstruction fund would be operational “within a few weeks,” although profits are expected to be reinvested for the first decade.
US-backed TechMet, which aims to secure Ukrainian lithium, called the agreement promising but noted the long-term commitment required. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy firm, expressed optimism, signaling that Ukraine was “open for business.”
However, not all are convinced. One mining executive remarked skeptically, “This romantic idea that there’s lakes of lithium to be tapped is just not the case.”
