The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, released today, paints a stark picture of mounting vulnerabilities in the supply chains for minerals essential to the global energy transition and high-tech industries. The report finds that despite a rebound in prices in 2025 and early 2026 due to tightening supply conditions, investment in critical mineral projects fell by 9% in 2025, ending several consecutive years of growth. This decline is attributed to price volatility and escalating geopolitical tensions, which have been exacerbated by a wave of new export restrictions from dominant suppliers. Geographic concentration has intensified, particularly in refining, with top refiners—Indonesia for nickel and China for other key energy minerals—accounting for over three-quarters of total growth in refined supply over the past two years. In markets for manganese, nickel, and graphite, virtually all supply growth came from the dominant supplier. The report highlights that rare earth export controls introduced by China in April 2025 forced some automakers to reduce production or temporarily suspend operations. Further controls announced in October 2025, though delayed for one year, could jeopardize an estimated $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China if fully enacted. However, there are signs of progress. Public finance commitments for critical mineral supply expansion more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, reaching $65 billion. In rare earth refining, new projects in the United States and increased production in Malaysia reduced the top supplier’s share from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, with projections to fall to 70% by 2035. Gaps between projected demand and anticipated supply for copper and lithium have also narrowed. Despite these gains, the report identifies a structural imbalance: investment is concentrated in mining, while refining and downstream capacity expansion lag. For rare earths, planned refining capacity reaches only about two-thirds of expected mine output by 2035, and planned magnet production amounts to just one-third. The IEA urges policymakers to focus on strategic minor minerals, where small markets but outsized economic impacts from disruptions offer opportunities for cost-effective supply security improvements. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that while critical minerals account for a small share of final product prices—allowing diversification costs to be absorbed with limited consumer impact—addressing technology, equipment bottlenecks, and workforce skills is essential. The report recommends emergency preparedness, enabling investment, and closing gaps in technology and skills to build resilient supply chains.
Tag: IEA
-
Middle East Conflict Disrupts Supply of Aluminum, Sulfur, and Critical Minerals Raw Materials
The ongoing Middle East conflict has triggered significant disruptions in the supply of aluminum, sulfur, and raw materials essential for critical mineral production, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) ‘Global Critical Minerals Market Review 2026’ report. While the primary focus of the conflict has been on oil and gas markets, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted mineral and metal markets. Middle Eastern countries account for approximately 8% of global aluminum production, and production restrictions at several regional plants have intensified market pressures. The region also supplies about a quarter of the world’s sulfur, with half of global seaborne shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Sulfur is a critical input for producing sulfuric acid, which is vital for fertilizer manufacturing and processing a range of critical minerals, including copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. The supply disruptions prompted China to restrict sulfuric acid exports in May 2026, further straining supply chains in both the critical minerals and fertilizer sectors. The resulting rise in sulfuric acid prices has increased production costs for industries reliant on critical minerals, with sulfuric acid expenses in some cases surpassing energy costs to become the largest component of production expenses. This development underscores the vulnerability of global critical mineral supply chains to geopolitical instability and highlights the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for mineral trade.
-
For critical minerals supply we need investment standards, BHP boss warns
Speaking at the International Energy Agency’s inaugural critical minerals conference in Paris, Henry called for a “small set of common standards” covering environmental, social and governance to underpin access to the capital required for investment the sector.
Critical minerals, essential for a range of clean and renewable energy technologies, have risen in the policy and business agenda, but a combination of volatile price movements, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns have created a potent mix of risks for secure and rapid energy transitions. This has triggered a scramble across the world to enhance the diversity and reliability of critical mineral supplies.
The head of the Australian multinational mining and metals public company, based in Melbourne, said urbanisation, industrialisation and population growth were driving demand for minerals such as copper, nickel and lithium and steel-making raw materials, along with a push to decarbonise economies.
“Governments must provide predictability and stability to attract capital at the lowest possible cost and as quickly as possible,” he said.
“This means stable fiscal settings, streamlined planning and permitting processes and harmonised standards. Too often we see short-termism in government policy, or policies which seek to meet near term political objectives, but which show limited understanding of what drives investment.”
Australia is the world’s leading producer of unprocessed lithium, the world’s third-largest cobalt exporter and the fourth-largest exporter of rare earths, which are in increased demand from Europe. Australia is also the fourth-largest exporter of mined copper and nickel and a significant producer of aluminium.
Using copper as a case study, BHP estimated that about $250-billion in growth capital to 2030, in addition to sustaining capital, was needed to support the climate decarbonisation required for a “plausible 1.5 degrees scenario”.
Addressing the meeting in Paris were several government ministers, including US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who cautioned about the potential for critical minerals supplies to be “weaponised”.
Henry called for a global convergence of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards.
“We need a small set of common standards, upheld by all, and where performance against those standards is a greater and increasing determinant of access to capital,” he said.
Miners, Henry added, should be granted access to resources based on the value they create, including for host communities and First Nations peoples.“Opening a mine, done well, creates sustainable wealth and jobs… But of course, this must be done with least possible impact to the environment,” he said.
In remarks likely aimed at China, Granholm said the world was up against a dominant supplier of critical minerals that “was willing to exploit its market power for political gain”, and warned that energy security would become increasingly complex due to the transition to cleaner power.
“But our global energy crisis has taken on a new dimension, which is the urgency of this clean energy transition,” she said.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said locking in secure and sustainable supplies of critical minerals for the clean energy transition had quickly become a top priority for governments, companies and investors around the world.“When we look at both the production and the refining, processing of the critical minerals we see a very high level of concentration,” he said in opening remarks to the conference.
“Looking at the history of energy in the last 100 years, when there was major concentration of one single country, one single company, one single route, there’s always a challenge.”
In a recent report, the IEA highlighted the current concentration of supply, with the Democratic Republic of Congo dominating cobalt stocks, China holding half of planned lithium chemical plants and Indonesia representing nearly 90 per cent of planned nickel refining facilities.
-
IEA says coal use hit an all-time high last year — and global demand will persist near record levels
Coal consumption increased by 3.3% to hit a fresh record high of 8.3 billion metric tons in 2022, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
According to the Paris-based organization’s Coal Market Update, demand increased “despite a weaker global economy, mainly driven by being more readily available and relatively cheaper than gas in many parts of the world.”
Overall, the IEA said 10,440 terawatt hours were generated from coal in 2022, a figure that accounted for 36% of the planet’s electricity generation.
Looking ahead, the IEA said coal consumption in 2023 would remain near last year’s record levels.
Geographically, the picture in 2023 is mixed. “By region, coal demand fell faster than previously expected in the first half of this year in the United States and the European Union — by 24% and 16%, respectively,” the IEA said in a statement accompanying its report.
“However, demand from the two largest consumers, China and India, grew by over 5% during the first half, more than offsetting declines elsewhere,” it added.