MINEX Forum

Tag: aluminum

  • Tajikistan Revises Economic Forecast: Investments Up, Aluminum Down

    Tajikistan Revises Economic Forecast: Investments Up, Aluminum Down

    The government of Tajikistan has officially revised its economic development forecast for the period 2027–2029, signalling a significant shift in the nation’s growth strategy. The new medium-term scenario highlights a strategic pivot towards industrial expansion, moving away from the traditional reliance on primary commodity exports. This adjustment comes in response to changing domestic dynamics and evolving global commodity trends, as the country seeks to bolster its economic resilience.

    Key revisions in the macroeconomic framework indicate a substantial increase in expectations for inbound investments, which are now seen as a primary pillar for the revised outlook. The government has set ambitious targets for heavy manufacturing and freight transportation, reflecting a proactive approach to enhancing industrial capacity. This shift is essential as Tajikistan aims to diversify its economic base and reduce vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity prices.

    Conversely, the forecast for aluminum production—a historically significant export for Tajikistan—has been downgraded. The government has reduced its production and revenue projections for this sector, aligning with broader regional warnings from institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. Analysts have previously highlighted the cooling global prices for primary metals, including aluminum, as a potential headwind for the Tajik economy.

    Additionally, specific segments within the agricultural sector have also seen downward adjustments in forecasts, indicating challenges in this area as well. The revised economic model for 2027–2029 reflects a proactive adjustment to these cooling commodity markets, with a clear focus on enhancing industrial capacity and promoting domestic investment.

    As Tajikistan navigates this shifting economic landscape, the government’s strategic pivot towards industrialisation could play a crucial role in stabilising the economy and fostering sustainable growth. The implications of these changes for Tajikistan’s trade balance with regional partners and the exact percentage targets for GDP growth remain areas of interest for further analysis.

  • Azerbaijan Aims to Elevate Aluminum Industry Through Strategic Partnerships

    Azerbaijan Aims to Elevate Aluminum Industry Through Strategic Partnerships

    Azerbaijan is positioning its aluminum industry as a cornerstone of its industrial diversification strategy, particularly through recent discussions with China’s Xinjiang Joinworld Co., Ltd. While Azerbaijan already boasts an established aluminum sector, led by Azeraluminium as the only primary aluminum producer in the South Caucasus, the focus of these talks extends beyond mere production increases. The discussions aim to leverage foreign technology, investment, and expertise to enhance the existing industrial capacity, thereby elevating the country’s position in the global industrial value chain.

    Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov highlighted that the collaboration with Xinjiang Joinworld is centred on joint projects that incorporate modern technologies and innovative solutions. This approach signifies a shift from merely increasing aluminum output to developing advanced capabilities that can produce higher-value products. The potential for Azerbaijan lies in transforming raw aluminum into products such as sheets, rolled products, and specialized alloys, which can significantly boost industrial value compared to exporting basic aluminum.

    Azerbaijan’s existing foundation for this expansion includes previous modernization efforts aimed at increasing production capacity and developing rolled aluminum products. Past collaborations with German technology partners have also focused on enhancing production and processing capabilities. The ongoing discussions with Chinese firms, including Wanji and Sunstone, indicate a strategic exploration of various segments within the Chinese industrial ecosystem, rather than a singular investment focus.

    The benefits of these partnerships extend beyond foreign capital; technology transfer is crucial. Modern metallurgical production demands sophisticated equipment and process management, and partnerships with experienced international companies can expedite the development of these capabilities domestically. Additionally, Azerbaijan has already established aluminum as a significant non-oil export, with over 40,500 tons exported in 2022, valued at $114 million. The country is now aiming to shift towards higher-value processed products.

    This strategy aligns with Azerbaijan’s broader economic diversification goals, utilising its strengths in energy, infrastructure, and logistics to create new revenue streams. Given that aluminum production is energy-intensive, Azerbaijan’s energy resources offer a competitive edge. The country’s strategic location along the Middle Corridor, which connects China and Europe, further enhances its potential as a manufacturing hub for regional markets, including Türkiye and Central Asia.

    The development of the Western Industrial Park underscores Azerbaijan’s commitment to deeper processing and stronger connections between raw material extraction and manufacturing. However, while discussions with Xinjiang Joinworld are promising, concrete details regarding investment size, production capacity, and timelines are still pending. The true economic impact will only be realised if these discussions culminate in a tangible joint venture and production plan.

    Ultimately, the key question for Azerbaijan is not why it needs China, but how it can synergise its existing industrial base with international technology and investment to produce more sophisticated and valuable aluminum products. This could mark a significant evolution in Azerbaijan’s aluminum narrative, transforming it into a vital player in the global market.

  • LME Introduces Streamlined Listing Process for New Metal Brands

    LME Introduces Streamlined Listing Process for New Metal Brands

    The London Metal Exchange (LME), the world’s oldest and largest industrial metals exchange, has announced a proposal to expedite the listing process for new metal brands. This initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of the exchange and strengthen its physical market infrastructure, as outlined in a recent consultation paper. The LME is currently seeking feedback from its members regarding several key proposals, including the introduction of indelible markings for aluminum, zinc, and lead, as well as the possibility of allowing the outdoor storage of primary aluminum in Hong Kong.

    One of the most significant changes proposed is the reduction of the minimum production period required before a brand listing application can be considered. Currently set at 12 months, this period would be cut to six months for most metals, including aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and tin. For copper, producers would still need to demonstrate six months of production before applying, but the timeline for Stage Two testing would remain at 12 months. This adjustment is expected to facilitate quicker entry for new producers into the market, thereby increasing competition and potentially benefiting consumers.

    Additionally, the LME is considering allowing primary aluminum to be stored outdoors in Hong Kong, a move that could alleviate storage constraints that have previously hampered aluminum arbitrage between mainland China and the LME warehouse network. The exchange is also proposing that new brands and shapes of primary aluminum, lead, and zinc carry permanent production cast markings to prevent issues arising from damaged or detached labels. These proposals are part of the LME’s ongoing efforts to modernise its operations and maintain its position as a leading player in the global metals market.

  • Middle East Conflict Disrupts Supply of Aluminum, Sulfur, and Critical Minerals Raw Materials

    Middle East Conflict Disrupts Supply of Aluminum, Sulfur, and Critical Minerals Raw Materials

    The ongoing Middle East conflict has triggered significant disruptions in the supply of aluminum, sulfur, and raw materials essential for critical mineral production, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) ‘Global Critical Minerals Market Review 2026’ report. While the primary focus of the conflict has been on oil and gas markets, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted mineral and metal markets. Middle Eastern countries account for approximately 8% of global aluminum production, and production restrictions at several regional plants have intensified market pressures. The region also supplies about a quarter of the world’s sulfur, with half of global seaborne shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Sulfur is a critical input for producing sulfuric acid, which is vital for fertilizer manufacturing and processing a range of critical minerals, including copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. The supply disruptions prompted China to restrict sulfuric acid exports in May 2026, further straining supply chains in both the critical minerals and fertilizer sectors. The resulting rise in sulfuric acid prices has increased production costs for industries reliant on critical minerals, with sulfuric acid expenses in some cases surpassing energy costs to become the largest component of production expenses. This development underscores the vulnerability of global critical mineral supply chains to geopolitical instability and highlights the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for mineral trade.

  • China Eyes Coal Waste as New Source of Critical Minerals

    China Eyes Coal Waste as New Source of Critical Minerals

    China is exploring the recovery of critical minerals from coal waste, with researchers highlighting fly ash and coal gangue as potential sources of strategic metals including germanium, gallium, lithium and aluminum.

    According to a new report, China’s extensive coal mining and power generation infrastructure could be leveraged to recover valuable metals from by-products that have traditionally been treated as industrial waste.

    “The coal refuse contains a variety of metal elements and could become an important source of critical metal supply,” said Dai Shifeng, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor at the China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing.

    Coal gangue refers to the rock separated from coal during mining, while fly ash is the fine mineral residue left after coal combustion. Although typically disposed of or used in construction materials such as cement, both materials can contain economically valuable concentrations of critical minerals and rare earth elements.

    Researchers argue that China’s integrated coal industry provides a strong foundation for resource recovery. Existing coal washing, chemical processing and power generation facilities could potentially be adapted to extract strategic metals from waste streams, reducing the need for additional mining.

    The approach could support China’s growing demand for critical minerals used in semiconductors, batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies and defence applications, while also improving resource efficiency and reducing industrial waste.

    However, the report notes that commercial recovery remains technically challenging. Metal concentrations vary significantly depending on the geological characteristics of individual coal deposits, and fly ash from different coal sources is often blended during power generation, resulting in inconsistent feedstock quality that can affect the economic viability of extraction.

    Researchers nevertheless believe rising demand for critical minerals will continue to improve the prospects for recovering metals from coal waste, building on China’s existing experience in extracting germanium from coal-related resources.

  • Kazakh Exporters Face Rising Costs Under EU Carbon Border Mechanism

    Kazakh Exporters Face Rising Costs Under EU Carbon Border Mechanism

    The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which came into force in 2026, is creating new compliance challenges for Kazakh металлургical exporters supplying the European market.

    CBAM is designed to account for carbon dioxide emissions generated during the production of imported goods and serves as an environmental standard for both European and foreign manufacturers. Kazakh exporters are now required to maintain detailed carbon reporting in order to preserve access to EU markets.

    More than half of Kazakhstan’s aluminum exports are destined for the European Union. In addition to the aluminum sector, the new rules also apply to ferrous metallurgy products.

    Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, the International Trade Centre (ITC) and QazTrade conducted an assessment of CBAM’s impact on local businesses and prepared practical recommendations for metallurgical companies adapting to the new framework.

    According to the study, exporters of raw aluminum, ferrochrome, steel bars and rods could face annual CBAM-related costs of around €114 million if export volumes remain at 2025 levels.

    QazTrade Deputy Chairman Nurlan Kulbatyrov said Kazakh industrial exporters have already begun adapting to the new EU requirements. Support measures are being introduced to help companies reduce financial pressure and maintain the competitiveness of Kazakh products in the European market.

    During a June 3 seminar, representatives of business, government and international organizations discussed methods for monitoring and verifying emissions, as well as opportunities linked to greener industrial production.

    One of the report’s authors, ITC expert Joost Pauwelyn, noted that Kazakhstan exports more than €600 million worth of steel and aluminum products to the EU annually. He warned that European greenhouse gas regulations could increase annual costs for Kazakh exporters by more than €100 million. Approximately 90% of the additional burden is expected to fall on steel bars and rods. In some cases, CBAM-related expenses could exceed the value of the exported product itself.

    Pauwelyn outlined several measures that could significantly reduce the financial impact on producers, including:

    • Monitoring and declaring actual emissions rather than relying on default values
    • Accrediting Kazakh verification bodies
    • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions at production facilities
    • Developing domestic carbon pricing mechanisms in Kazakhstan
  • Mozambique Smelter Shutdown Set to Tighten Global Aluminum Supply in 2026

    Mozambique Smelter Shutdown Set to Tighten Global Aluminum Supply in 2026

    The planned shutdown of Mozambique’s Mozal aluminum smelter is expected to weigh heavily on global aluminum supply next year, forcing European Union buyers to seek alternative sources, analysts say.

    Mining group South32 confirmed that the Mozal smelter, with an annual capacity of 560000 metric tons, will be placed on care and maintenance from mid-March after negotiations with power utilities and the Mozambican government failed to secure a new electricity supply agreement.

    Trade Data Monitor figures show that in the first 10 months of 2025, Mozal shipped nearly 430000 tons of aluminum to the EU, making Mozambique the bloc’s largest supplier of primary aluminum with close to one fifth of total imports.

    ING now expects a global aluminum deficit of around 600000 tons in 2026, according to analyst Ewa Manthey. The bank had previously forecast a deficit of 200000 tons, following a shortfall of about half that size in 2025. Manthey said Europe is likely to compensate for the loss of Mozal supply through increased imports from Canada and the Middle East.

    European demand for primary aluminum is estimated at about 9 million tons per year, according to industry group European Aluminium. The impact of Mozal’s shutdown is being compounded by reduced output at Century Aluminum’s Iceland smelter, where production has fallen by roughly two thirds following an electrical failure. Iceland has been the EU’s second-largest aluminum supplier this year.

    Supply pressures are also being intensified by regulatory and trade factors. From January, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will impose a carbon tax on aluminum imports, while permitted imports of Russian aluminum will be capped at 50000 tons between February 26 and December 31.

    Prices have responded accordingly. Three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange was trading about 0.5% higher at around $2880 per ton, close to the more than three-year high of $2920 recorded in early November and again in early December. The European duty-paid premium rose to a 10-month high of $340 per ton at the start of December and was last seen at $326.

    According to consultancy CRU, a full closure of Mozal would turn its forecast of a roughly 200000-ton aluminum surplus in 2026 into a deficit. CRU’s head of aluminum raw materials, Ross Strachan, said producers in the Gulf region are well positioned to increase shipments to Europe, attracted by elevated premiums.

  • Eurasian Resources Group expects a neutral-to-bullish outlook for key metals in 2025

    Eurasian Resources Group expects a neutral-to-bullish outlook for key metals in 2025

    Eurasian Resources Group has shared its market expectations for 2025 and beyond, highlighting several key trends across various metals and industries:

    Copper market growth: The global copper market is expected to grow by 4% year-over-year in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% projected between 2024 and 2034.

    Stainless steel and ferrochrome demand: Development of renewable energy sources like wind turbines, along with record sales in home appliances and consumer goods, is expected to drive strong growth in stainless steel demand, reaching 4.8% in 2025. This growth will significantly benefit the ferrochrome industry.

    Aluminum demand: An average 3% year-over-year growth in aluminum demand is anticipated in 2025, primarily driven by the automotive and renewable energy sectors.

    Cobalt market outlook: While currently in surplus, the global electric vehicle (EV) sector is expected to continue growing and may represent over 60% of cobalt demand by 2030. This is projected to lead to market deficits as cobalt demand outpaces supply by the end of the decade.

    AI impact on metals demand: Artificial intelligence is expected to increasingly boost additional metals demand. Bank of America has estimated that demand directly from data centers for copper could be around 200,000 tonnes per year between 2025 and 2028.

    Overall outlook: Eurasian Resources Group expects a neutral-to-bullish outlook for key metals in 2025, subject to various macro trends and factors such as the economic situation in China, potential trade protectionist measures, and US monetary policy.

    The group notes that while the speed and consistency of economic recovery may be uneven, the long-term fundamentals for metals and minerals in ERG’s product portfolio appear promising.

  • Aluminum Prices Rise Amid EU’s Planned Ban on Russian Imports

    Aluminum Prices Rise Amid EU’s Planned Ban on Russian Imports

    Aluminum prices in London surged as the European Union prepared to introduce a phased ban on Russian imports. The proposed measure, part of a broader sanctions package, would initially allow a quota of 275,000 metric tons for one year before imposing a full ban, according to sources.

    Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, calls for an aluminum ban have grown, and EU imports from Russia have already declined as manufacturers seek alternative suppliers. However, some European buyers and member states have resisted a total ban, citing challenges in replacing certain products.

    The EU imported approximately 320,000 tons of unwrought aluminum from Russia in the first 11 months of 2024, making up 6% of total imports. Meanwhile, Russia has significantly increased sales to China.

    Following news of the EU’s proposal, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange rose 2% to $2,624.50 per ton, while copper and lead also gained. Traders are closely watching the impact of global trade tensions, particularly upcoming US tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. The White House reaffirmed that these levies will take effect on February 1, with President Donald Trump hinting at even broader trade restrictions in the future.

     

  • Aluminum Prices Rise as EU Considers Russian Import Curbs

    Aluminum Prices Rise as EU Considers Russian Import Curbs

    Aluminum prices increased by up to 1.4% amid reports that the European Union may introduce restrictions on imports from Russia. While the scope of these curbs remains undecided, the move aligns with global supply chain reconfigurations since the invasion of Ukraine, which has already reduced Russian aluminum shipments to Europe. Many manufacturers have self-sanctioned, rerouting significant volumes to China, where imports have doubled since 2022.

    China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, is expected to see slowed production growth this year due to capacity limits, tightening exports and supporting higher prices. Futures for aluminum closed at $2,595 per ton in London, while other metals like zinc and copper remained steady, and lead dropped 1.1% following increased inventories. Analysts note that the market has largely adjusted to changes, minimizing the potential impact of further trade rerouting.