The tungsten market is experiencing a significant price surge, with prices increasing by 310% from January to July 2026, driven by Chinese export controls and rising military demand. According to a recent report from S&P Global, global first-use tungsten demand is projected to rise from approximately 162,000 tonnes of WO₃ in 2025 to 180,000 tonnes by 2030 and 202,000 tonnes by 2035. China remains the dominant player in the tungsten market, having produced 67,000 tonnes of the total 85,000 tonnes mined globally in 2025 and controlling about 85% of APT refining capacity.
Despite the announcement of 11 new projects that could add about 20,000 tonnes of annual mine capacity outside China by 2030, S&P Global estimates a primary mine supply gap of 16,000 tonnes ex-China by 2030. This gap is concerning, especially as the price of tungsten APT has surged from approximately US$83/kg WO₃ in January 2026 to US$340/kg in July 2026. While the price increase has surpassed the theoretical investment hurdle for new supply, the real challenge lies in the development bottlenecks related to financing, permitting, and construction.
The report highlights several key projects that could potentially deliver new tungsten supply, including the Sangdong project in South Korea, Hemerdon in the UK, and Northern Katpar in Kazakhstan. However, the timeline for these projects remains uncertain, and their success is contingent upon various factors, including financing and regulatory approvals.
Tungsten is classified as a critical mineral due to its unique properties, which make it essential for various applications, including defence, industrial tools, and technology. The rising prices reflect a complex interplay of supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions, and strategic stockpiling, particularly in the context of US-China relations. As the US prepares to impose significant restrictions on tungsten imports from certain countries in 2027, the market is likely to face further challenges in meeting demand.
While the current price levels may incentivise new tungsten supply, the industry faces significant hurdles in terms of project financing and development timelines. The tungsten market is at a critical juncture, with supply constraints likely to persist unless substantial investments and regulatory support are provided to facilitate new production.
