Ukraine possesses 1% of the world’s lithium reserves, a key component in battery production. In 2022, lithium prices surged to record levels of $80,000 per tonne, only to drop by half in 2023. In Ukraine, two companies are getting close to lithium mining, though years and hundreds of millions of dollars in investments separate them from the first tonne sold. What are entrepreneurs counting on?
“Ukraine has the largest lithium reserves in Europe, as well as significant deposits of other minerals,” wrote Yulia Svyrydenko, the First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, on Facebook during the London URC summit.
Lithium is a vital component in the production of batteries for smartphones and electric vehicles. In 2022, electric car production increased by 55% to 10.5 million units, according to the consulting firm EV volumes.
The electric car boom is driving the lithium market upwards. Lithium production is expected to increase sevenfold from 2021 to 2030, according to BloombergNEF. However, the price peak in the market likely occurred in 2022. As of July 2023, the price per ton of lithium carbonate had fallen to $40,000, half of the peak price in November 2022, according to Trading Economics. Nevertheless, current prices remain significantly higher than in previous years.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 70% of global enriched lithium production comes from Australia and Chile.
“Ukraine’s lithium reserves are sufficient to supply batteries for almost 20 million electric vehicles,” says Roman Opimakh, the head of the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine’s lithium ore reserves account for 1% of the world’s total or one-third of Europe’s reserves. “Exact volumes are classified as ‘secret,’” he adds.
However, no one in Ukraine has yet mined lithium. Who in Ukraine has a chance to benefit from the lithium fever, which could end within the next 10 years?
Challenges of Ukrainian lithium In 2017, “Ukrlitidobycha,” owned by Sergei Tabalov, the son of Kirovograd businessman and former MP Alexander Tabalov, acquired a license for the development of the Polohivsky deposit in the Kirovograd region for UAH 119 million. “I was able to convince other family members that this was a promising idea,” says Sergei Tabalov.
There are four lithium ore deposits explored in Ukraine. Two are in the Kirovograd region – Polohivsky and the Dobro site. Another two are located in the territories temporarily occupied by Russia – the Shevchenkivsky and Krutaya Balka deposits in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
The last centralized assessment of Ukrainian deposits was carried out in the 1980s, says Yegor Perelygin, a member of the Board of the United Mining and Chemical Company. In Soviet times, exploration of these deposits was not thorough, as lithium was only used for glass production and had little demand, says Mikhail Zhernov, the executive director of the Australian company European Lithium.
Lack of accurate data is not the only problem with lithium mining in Ukraine. Not all Ukrainian lithium can be used for battery production because the ore is poorer than in Australia or Chile, says Zhernov.
From 2017 to 2023, “Ukrlitidobycha,” according to Tabalov, invested $20 million in the exploration of the Polohivsky deposit. The deposit’s reserves are 75 million tonnes, but the company still doesn’t have exact data on how much enriched lithium carbonate, used for batteries, can be produced from this ore. “The share of lithium is sufficient,” Tabalov assures.
Currently, “Ukrlitidobycha” is at the Prefeasibility Study stage. Tabalov is assisted by consultants from Finland, South Africa, Brazil, the UK, and Australia.
The final project for the development of the deposit is planned to be prepared in 2024. “Ukrlitidobycha” is in negotiations with several potential investors, which it does not disclose. By the beginning of 2025, “Ukrlitidobycha” plans to attract $700 million, half of which will go to the construction of a mine and processing plant (GOK), while the rest will be allocated to a plant for the production of enriched lithium carbonate.
According to “Ukrlitidobycha’s” plans, the plant will be able to produce 20,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year and will be located in one of the EU countries. “Potential investors insist that the plant can only be in Europe, even after the war,” says Denis Aleshin, the Director of Strategic Development at “Ukrlitidobycha.”
Since 2019, Mikhail Zhernov of European Lithium has been trying to start lithium mining in Ukraine. His company MillStone&Co had a license for the Shevchenkivsky deposit and wanted to obtain another license for the Dobro site. However, the court revoked the company’s first special permit, and Roman Opimakh, the head of the State Service of Geology and Subsoil, denied the second permit due to rule changes, according to the specialized publication Nadra.info.
However, Zhernov is not giving up. In 2021, he acquired a stake in the Australian company European Lithium, which mines lithium in Austria and has an ore processing plant. According to Zhernov’s plan, the Australian company should help defend the right to the Dobro site in Ukrainian courts.
“We are ready to invest $10-15 million in exploration,” says Zhernov, “and build a processing plant if the reserves are confirmed at more than 12.88 million tonnes.”
Time is not on the side of Zhernov and Tabalov. In 10 years, demand and prices for lithium will decline, predicts Alexey Falkovich, the Director of the Geological Service Company. “Technologies for battery production without using lithium are developing rapidly,” Falkovich says.
Zhernov predicts the end of the lithium era in 15 years. Graphene, for example, could replace lithium.