Chinese uranium company CGN Mining is closely studying amendments to Kazakhstan’s Subsoil and Subsoil Use Code adopted in December 2025, which could significantly alter the ownership structure of its joint ventures with Kazatomprom when existing licences come up for renewal — potentially stripping the company of a substantial portion of its uranium resource base within four to five years.
Under the updated Code, Kazatomprom can claim up to a 90% stake in uranium projects at the point of contract renewal, unless the foreign joint venture partner applies an option to transfer uranium conversion and enrichment technology. The Chinese side possesses such technology, which provides a theoretical negotiating lever. The legislation also increased Kazatomprom’s mandatory participation in new uranium ventures transitioning from exploration to production from 50% to 75%.
CGN Mining holds 49% stakes in two joint ventures with Kazatomprom. In Semizbay-U — acquired for $133 million in 2014 — the company holds subsoil rights to the Semizbay deposit in Akmola Region, with a licence valid until 2031, and the Irkol mine in Kyzylorda Region, valid until 2030. JORC-compliant reserves and resources at year-end 2025 stood at 4,600 tonnes at Semizbay and 1,800 tonnes at Irkol. In 2025, the joint venture produced 862 tonnes of uranium against a plan of 861 tonnes — 397 tonnes from Semizbay at a production cost of $37 per pound U3O8 and 465 tonnes from Irkol at $31 per pound. CGN received nearly $33 million in after-tax dividends from Semizbay-U in 2025.
At current extraction rates, the Semizbay deposit’s reserves would take more than ten years to exhaust — well beyond the contract’s expiry. This creates a clear risk: upon renewal, Kazatomprom could claim 90% of the project, leaving CGN with a dramatically reduced position. Irkol’s reserves may be depletable before contract expiry, but additional resources estimated under Kazakhstan’s State Reserve Commission standard leave uncertainty.
The second asset, Ortalyk — acquired for $435 million in 2021 — operates two mines in Turkestan Region: the Central Mynkuduk block with a licence until 2033 and Zhalpak until 2042. Combined reserves and resources stood at approximately 30,000 tonnes of uranium at end-2025. Ortalyk produced 1,834 tonnes of uranium in 2025 after processing losses, generating $64.7 million in after-tax dividends for CGN. At current rates, the Central Mynkuduk block cannot be fully depleted before its 2033 contract expiry — requiring approximately ten years at current output — meaning a portion of its resources could transition to Kazatomprom upon renewal. Zhalpak, with its 2042 deadline, offers a realistic chance of full utilisation if annual output increases to around 1,000 tonnes.
The broader context involves significant mutual dependence. China typically accounts for approximately half of all Kazatomprom’s uranium sales, making Kazakhstan an indispensable supplier for China’s expanding nuclear power programme. In May, Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified a bilateral investment protection agreement with China, and Chinese officials pointed to extensive international arbitration opportunities in Hong Kong for Kazakhstani companies — signals that both sides are laying legal groundwork ahead of what may be complex renegotiations.
