Recovering critical minerals from used batteries, end-of-life vehicles and electronic waste could supply more than half of Europe’s critical minerals demand by 2050, according to a major new report — offering the continent a substantial route to reducing its dependence on Chinese-dominated supply chains without relying solely on new mining.
The findings come from the FutuRaM project, a European Union-funded research initiative that analysed Europe’s recycling potential across three scenarios. In 2022, approximately 2 million metric tonnes of critical minerals were contained in waste generated across the 27 EU member states plus Switzerland, Norway, the UK and Iceland. That figure is projected to grow to up to 6 million tonnes by 2050 as the stock of clean energy technologies — from EV batteries to wind turbines — reaches end of life. If the secondary raw materials already being collected were fully and functionally recycled, they could supply up to 56% of Europe’s critical minerals demand by 2050.
The study identifies end-of-life electric vehicles as the single largest contributor to this recycling potential, containing a variety of rare earth elements with high recoverability. However, despite relatively high vehicle collection rates in the EU, most of the minerals contained in them are not currently being processed. Lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements are among the materials most commonly lost during collection or waste processing today.
Kees Baldé, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Training and Research and one of the report’s authors, described harnessing Europe’s waste streams as essential for strengthening supply security and supporting the clean energy transition. The report calls for a structural shift in European waste management, noting that countries currently track these materials differently and lack a unified regional market. It also recommends increased investment in recycling infrastructure, skills development and awareness.
The urgency is amplified by China’s position. China holds a firm grip on the production and refining of 19 out of 20 critical minerals identified by the IEA and accounts for approximately 80% of the world’s mineral recovery capacity. In the past year, Beijing has enacted export controls on rare earths, rare earth magnet components and lithium battery components, raising costs and supply security concerns across European industry. The IEA estimates that scaling up recycling globally could reduce the need for new mining by 25 to 40% by 2050 under climate-aligned scenarios.
Pascal Leroy of the WEEE Forum said the findings demanded a fundamental mindset shift: “Our mindset needs to shift to think of secondary sources of CRMs as the new primary source.”
