The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, released today, paints a stark picture of mounting vulnerabilities in the supply chains for minerals essential to the global energy transition and high-tech industries. The report finds that despite a rebound in prices in 2025 and early 2026 due to tightening supply conditions, investment in critical mineral projects fell by 9% in 2025, ending several consecutive years of growth. This decline is attributed to price volatility and escalating geopolitical tensions, which have been exacerbated by a wave of new export restrictions from dominant suppliers. Geographic concentration has intensified, particularly in refining, with top refiners—Indonesia for nickel and China for other key energy minerals—accounting for over three-quarters of total growth in refined supply over the past two years. In markets for manganese, nickel, and graphite, virtually all supply growth came from the dominant supplier. The report highlights that rare earth export controls introduced by China in April 2025 forced some automakers to reduce production or temporarily suspend operations. Further controls announced in October 2025, though delayed for one year, could jeopardize an estimated $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China if fully enacted. However, there are signs of progress. Public finance commitments for critical mineral supply expansion more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, reaching $65 billion. In rare earth refining, new projects in the United States and increased production in Malaysia reduced the top supplier’s share from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, with projections to fall to 70% by 2035. Gaps between projected demand and anticipated supply for copper and lithium have also narrowed. Despite these gains, the report identifies a structural imbalance: investment is concentrated in mining, while refining and downstream capacity expansion lag. For rare earths, planned refining capacity reaches only about two-thirds of expected mine output by 2035, and planned magnet production amounts to just one-third. The IEA urges policymakers to focus on strategic minor minerals, where small markets but outsized economic impacts from disruptions offer opportunities for cost-effective supply security improvements. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that while critical minerals account for a small share of final product prices—allowing diversification costs to be absorbed with limited consumer impact—addressing technology, equipment bottlenecks, and workforce skills is essential. The report recommends emergency preparedness, enabling investment, and closing gaps in technology and skills to build resilient supply chains.
Source and Credit: iea.org
