Recent discussions about Mongolia’s decision to allocate 60 percent of mining revenues to its National Wealth Fund, with part of the funds distributed directly to citizens through personal accounts, have sparked debate in Kazakhstan about alternative resource revenue models.
According to Saidа Tleulenova, a financial expert from Qazaq Expert Club, Mongolia’s system represents a relatively rare model where citizens receive a direct share of national resource income. Such approaches are more common in countries with smaller populations and highly concentrated mining sectors.
A frequently cited example is the US state of Alaska, where residents receive annual payments from the Permanent Fund Dividend financed by oil revenues. In contrast, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund focuses on long-term capital accumulation and investment returns rather than direct cash transfers to citizens.
Kazakhstan has adopted a different approach. The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan accumulates revenues from oil and other natural resources, but payments to citizens are distributed only through investment income rather than direct resource revenues.
This principle underpins the “National Fund for Children” programme launched on January 1, 2024. Under the scheme, 50 percent of the National Fund’s annual investment income is allocated to accounts for children. Once citizens reach the age of 18, they can use the accumulated funds for housing purchases or educational expenses.
Tleulenova noted that the model reflects a deliberate policy choice. Direct distribution of the fund’s principal revenues could place pressure on public finances, increase inflation and weaken the national currency. The National Fund also serves broader economic functions, including financing strategic projects, supporting the state budget and maintaining long-term financial stability.
While it would be technically possible to increase direct payments to citizens, the expert warned that allocating a share of extraction revenues directly to households could reduce the government’s ability to manage economic policy, affect the foreign exchange market and limit funding for infrastructure and industrial development.
In her view, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Alaska have simply adopted different resource management strategies. Direct payments can increase public trust and citizens’ sense of participation in national wealth, but they may also reduce fiscal stability. Conversely, accumulation-based models provide macroeconomic resilience but deliver benefits to citizens more indirectly through public spending and social programmes.
Tleulenova suggested that any expansion of direct payments should be approached cautiously, potentially through pilot initiatives or limited revenue allocations, while carefully modelling impacts on inflation, the state budget and the tenge exchange rate.
The debate comes as Kazakhstan’s National Fund approaches a total value of nearly KZT 40 trillion.
