China’s export restrictions on a handful of critical minerals could cost the United States more than $1 billion annually in GDP losses, according to new research by Macquarie Group
The analysis, led by chief economist Ric Deverell, modeled the potential impact of Beijing’s export controls on four rare earth elements — samarium, lutetium, terbium, and dysprosium — along with gallium, all of which appear on the US government’s updated list of 60 critical minerals, which now also includes copper and silver
While the direct trade exposure may appear limited, Macquarie’s study highlights how supply disruptions to these small but indispensable materials could ripple through the defense, semiconductor, and clean-tech sectors, amplifying the economic impact far beyond their raw import value
