Kazakhstan has experienced a staggering 98.4% year-on-year (YoY) decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for the first nine months of 2024, according to Kazakh Invest, the national investment promotion company. This drastic drop, which saw FDI plummet from $2.3 billion to just $72.9 million, is being attributed to a confluence of factors, including volatile commodity markets and the completion of major infrastructure projects.
Kazakh Invest insists the decline isn’t a reflection of flawed investment policies but rather external economic pressures. “The decline in FDI inflows is not related to inefficiencies in investment policy but rather to objective economic factors, including commodity market volatility and investors’ decisions,” the company stated. They emphasized the significant role of the mining sector in Kazakhstan’s FDI landscape, highlighting that these market fluctuations are beyond government control.
A key factor contributing to the decline is a 93.4% reduction in reinvested earnings. Kazakh Invest suggests this could indicate decreased profits for foreign-owned businesses or increased dividend payouts to international shareholders. The completion of large-scale projects, such as Tengizchevroil’s Future Growth Project, has also played a significant role. While this project’s completion has impacted FDI inflows, Kazakh Invest believes it will pave the way for investment in other promising sectors like renewable energy, agriculture, logistics, and digital technologies.
Despite the sharp decline, Kazakh Invest maintains that Kazakhstan remains an attractive destination for foreign investors, citing its leading investment volume in new projects among Central and North Asian states. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) reported $15.7 billion in investment projects for Kazakhstan in 2024, an 88% increase from 2023.
Economist Galymzhan Aitkazin suggests that the overall gross FDI inflow decline of 35.7% YoY, totaling $12.7 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, reflects international investor interest rather than capital flight. Kazakh Invest echoed this sentiment, pointing to the completion of the $46 billion Tengizchevroil project as a primary driver of the decline in gross FDI inflows.
While Kazakhstan attracted $931.9 million in FDI from Russia in the first half of 2024, making it the largest investor, this figure still represents a 21.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Other significant investors include Singapore, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Cyprus, focusing primarily on trading, financial, and processing sectors.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has stressed the need for a comprehensive ecosystem to attract high-quality investments. Kazakh Invest has reiterated its commitment to this goal.
While net FDI remained negative at -$1.6 billion for the first nine months of 2024, it is an improvement compared to -$3.2 billion in 2023. However, FDI outflows have doubled compared to the previous year, reaching $1.5 billion.
The National Bank acknowledged in August 2023 that relying solely on gross FDI inflows can be misleading, as it overlooks capital outflows and doesn’t provide a complete picture of the investment climate.
