Tungsten has emerged as one of the focal points of today’s geo-economic competition, as the disruption of traditional supply routes has reshaped the global market and intensified the search for alternative sources. The full-scale crisis that began in 2022 exposed the fragility of critical mineral supply chains, particularly for metals essential to defence and advanced manufacturing.
Before the war in Ukraine, a significant share of global tungsten supply came from Russia and China. Sanctions imposed on Moscow effectively halted Russian exports, forcing the closure of several mines and removing Russian material from Western markets. As a result, global supply became even more concentrated in China, deepening Western dependence on a single dominant producer.
The conflict also triggered a surge in defence production across NATO countries, driving higher demand for tungsten used in ammunition and military equipment. In response, G7 states agreed in 2023 on a mineral security agenda aimed at diversifying supply and countering monopolistic practices in critical raw materials markets. The United States moved particularly quickly, setting regulatory targets to eliminate tungsten purchases from China and Russia for defence needs by 2027. Pentagon procurement plans alone envisaged demand exceeding 2,000 tonnes in 2025. At the same time, Canada’s Almonty Industries accelerated the restart of South Korea’s Sangdong mine to supply the U.S. market.
China, which controls up to 83% of global tungsten production and more than half of confirmed reserves, has adjusted its strategy as relations with the West have deteriorated. After years of price dumping and oversupply that pushed competitors out of the market, Beijing tightened export controls. From February 2025, tungsten exports became subject to licensing by China’s Ministry of Commerce. While not a formal ban, the policy has increased supply risks. Chinese tungsten exports fell by nearly a quarter in the first half of 2025, while prices surged to record levels, with ammonium paratungstate exceeding $60,000 per tonne.
These shifts have pushed investors and governments to look more closely at deposits outside China, particularly in Central Asia. Chinese companies, seeking to retain influence, have also stepped up overseas resource investments. In Kazakhstan, a new tungsten processing plant backed by Chinese capital began operations in mid-2025, with an annual capacity of around 3.3 million tonnes of ore. Despite this, nearly all of Kazakhstan’s tungsten concentrates continue to be exported to China.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 added fresh momentum to the scramble for strategic minerals. The new U.S. administration elevated critical metals to a foreign-policy priority and renewed its focus on Central Asia. In November 2025, Washington and Astana announced agreements to jointly develop the North Katpar and Upper Kairakty tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan’s Karaganda region. With resources estimated at 755 million tonnes of ore and around 854,000 tonnes of tungsten trioxide, Upper Kairakty is considered the largest tungsten deposit in the world.
A joint venture was established in which U.S.-based Cove Capital holds a 70% stake and Kazakhstan’s Tau-Ken Samruk 30%. The project targets initial production of about 12,000 tonnes of tungsten per year, equivalent to roughly 15% of current global output, with a mine life exceeding 50 years. If fully realized, Kazakhstan could emerge as the world’s second-largest tungsten producer after China.
Beyond Kazakhstan, other Central Asian states are also seeking to position themselves within new supply chains. Uzbekistan has begun engaging Western investors in rare earths and other critical minerals, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, though smaller in scale, hold geologically significant deposits. For the region, this represents an opportunity to diversify economies, attract capital and increase geopolitical relevance amid a global reconfiguration of mineral supply.
Despite these developments, the tungsten market remains far from multipolar. China continues to dominate mining, processing and pricing, and Western economies are likely to remain partially dependent on Chinese supply in the near term. Nevertheless, the foundations of an alternative supply architecture are being laid, with Central Asia emerging as a key pillar in efforts to rebalance the global tungsten market.
