The European Union is well-positioned to weather, and potentially even benefit from, China’s new export controls on the critical raw material antimony, despite the measures causing a massive shock to global markets. A new policy brief from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) reveals that the EU’s strategic diversification of its supply chain has largely insulated it from the direct impact of the controls, which sent prices soaring by more than 170%.
The report, “China’s Antimony Export Controls: Risks and Opportunities for the EU,” analyzes the fallout from China’s decision, effective September 15, 2024, to require dual-use export licenses for antimony and its products. The material is vital for defense applications—including armour-piercing rounds and night-vision equipment—as well as flame retardants, electronics, and batteries.
The announcement immediately roiled the market, with the price of antimony metal surging from approximately 38,000 per tonne in September. The report describes this dramatic price jump as a reflection of “severe market disruptions, supply chain concerns, and potential shortages.”
However, the JRC analysis concludes that the EU’s exposure is limited, thanks to years of proactive efforts to reduce its dependency on China.
Key findings from the report include:
-
Diversified Supply Chains: While the EU is 100% reliant on imports for antimony ore, its primary supplier is Turkey (77%), not China. For antimony metal, the EU has dramatically shifted its sourcing, with Tajikistan now providing 52% of its imports. China’s share of the EU’s metal imports has fallen from 40% in 2020 to just 18% in 2023.
-
The US is More Exposed: The report highlights that the United States is far more vulnerable to the new regulations. China supplies 44% of US imports of antimony oxides—a refined product used in flame retardants and catalysts—compared to just 5% of EU imports.
-
An Opportunity for EU Exporters: The EU is a net exporter of high-value antimony oxides, producing 28,000 tonnes annually. The report suggests that if Chinese supply to the US and other markets is disrupted, EU producers could step in to fill the gap. “If European producers can secure stable antimony metal supplies, the EU may have an opportunity to expand exports,” the brief states.
The report concludes that the EU’s strategic foresight in diversifying its critical mineral sources has turned a potential supply chain crisis into a manageable situation with a potential upside. While the dramatic price increase will affect all global users, the EU’s direct reliance on China is minimal, placing it in a resilient position compared to other major economies.
