Washington, Feb 25, 2025
In a move that could redefine global access to essential minerals, President Trump has signaled his openness to a landmark agreement with Ukraine. During a recent address on “America Decides,” Trump proposed inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington later this week to sign a deal that would grant the United States access to Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves.
According to the President’s remarks, Ukraine would benefit from a package reportedly valued at around $250 billion—in addition to significant military equipment and the capacity “to fight on.” This proposal follows a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his willingness to sell minerals from both Russia and territories occupied in Ukraine, with Trump even hinting that buying these resources from Putin “is not out of the question.”
A Deal in Flux
In an exclusive interview, Dr. Gracelin Baskaran, Director of the US Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, provided insights into what is being described as “the first of its kind” agreement. Originally, President Trump had floated a proposal for a repayment of $500 billion for military assistance. However, as Dr. Baskaran explained, the negotiations evolved significantly, with figures being recalibrated to around $128 billion—a far cry from earlier, more dramatic figures.
Central to the deal is the creation of a fund designed to capitalise on Ukraine’s mineral assets. Under the preliminary framework, 50% of the revenue generated would be funneled into this fund, earmarked to support initiatives such as Ukraine’s future reconstruction efforts. Yet, despite these ambitious plans, several key issues remain unresolved.
Old Data, New Challenges
Dr. Baskaran highlighted a major hurdle: the reliance on Soviet-era data that is between 30 to 60 years old. “We are basically making an agreement with very little modern data,” she noted, emphasising that much of the historical information does not account for today’s critical needs—such as minerals necessary for advanced semiconductors, high-tech equipment, and modern weaponry.
In addition, the war in Ukraine has not only disrupted the mining operations but also decimated vital infrastructure. “You can mine all you want, but if you don’t have the means to move the materials—reliable transportation and energy infrastructure—you don’t have much,” she commented. With much of the infrastructure intentionally damaged during the conflict, the challenge of developing mines is compounded. On average, it takes 18 years to develop a mine, which then may operate for another 30 to 80 years, a timeline that far exceeds the four-year electoral cycle of U.S. presidents.
Security Guarantees and Private Sector Concerns
The absence of an explicit security guarantee in the current framework has raised concerns among private investors. While President Zelenskyy had hoped for a written assurance of long-term protection, the deal as it stands appears to rely on an implicit understanding—a stance that has left the private sector wary. “Those who would develop these resources need something in print,” Dr. Baskaran stressed, noting that without an explicit, long-term security guarantee, significant financial risks remain for investors.
Adding another layer of complexity, Dr. Baskaran pointed out that with Putin already negotiating mineral sales from occupied regions, the private sector is cautious about the potential for additional disputed territories to be brought into play. This overlapping interest underscores the geopolitical tug-of-war over Ukraine’s mineral wealth—a contest not only between the United States and Russia, but also involving critical stakeholders from the private sector.
Looking Ahead
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine is expected to recommend on Wednesday that the deal be signed, as reported by the sources, who requested anonymity while discussing private deliberations. President Zelenskyy plans to travel to the US on 28 February 2025, to finalise the agreement, the sources mentioned.
As discussions continue, the emerging mineral deal represents a bold attempt to secure critical resources that underpin both modern technology and military capability. However, the success of the agreement hinges on resolving long-standing issues: establishing accurate, up-to-date resource data, rebuilding essential infrastructure, and providing the long-term security guarantees that the private sector demands.
While President Trump’s proposal and recent diplomatic overtures from global leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron suggest broad political support for a robust security framework for Ukraine, the road ahead remains fraught with uncertainties. As negotiations evolve, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this pioneering mineral deal can live up to its transformative promise.
