In the shadow of escalating geopolitical tensions, a narrative has emerged that Ukraine—a nation battered by war and economic instability—sits atop trillions of dollars’ worth of rare earth metals (REMs). This tantalising claim has captured the attention of policymakers, investors, and media outlets alike. But as with many stories born out of crisis, the truth is far more nuanced—and far less sensational—than it appears.
At the heart of this tale is a proposed $500 billion deal between the White House and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, aimed at tapping into Ukraine’s purported mineral wealth. The problem? Ukraine doesn’t have any rare earth metals to speak of. What it does have are strategically important minerals like lithium, graphite, titanium, and copper—resources critical for modern technology but not nearly as valuable or transformative as REMs.
This distinction matters—not just for Ukraine’s economic future but also for global supply chains, energy security, and the geopolitical balance of power. To understand why, we must delve into the science, economics, and politics behind these materials, separating fact from fiction in what could be one of the most misunderstood narratives of our time.
What Are Rare Earth Metals, Really?
Rare earth metals (REMs) are a group of 17 elements on the periodic table, including the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium. Despite their name, most REMs are not particularly rare in the Earth’s crust; rather, they are difficult to extract and refine economically due to their geological dispersion. These elements play an outsised role in modern technology, enabling everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines and advanced military systems.
Their importance lies in their unique chemical properties. When combined with other materials, REMs create alloys and compounds with extraordinary conductivity, magnetism, and durability. For example, neodymium is essential for manufacturing powerful permanent magnets used in wind turbines and electric motors, while dysprosium improves the heat resistance of those same magnets.
But here’s the rub: despite their critical applications, the total annual value of global REM production hovers around $15 billion—less than the revenue generated by two days of global oil output. While indispensable, REMs are not the golden ticket some imagine them to be.
Ukraine’s Real Mineral Wealth
So if Ukraine doesn’t have REMs, what does it have? Quite a bit, actually—but none of it qualifies as “rare earth.” Instead, Ukraine boasts significant reserves of strategically important minerals that are vital for clean energy, electronics, and defense industries. Among these are:
- Lithium: Often referred to as “white gold,” lithium is crucial for producing high-capacity batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage. Ukraine holds Europe’s largest lithium deposits, estimated at 12–14 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. However, these resources remain largely untapped. As of 2024, Ukraine produces no lithium and exports nothing. Even if fully exploited, current reserves would be worth between $10 billion and $12.5 billion—not even close to the $500 billion figure touted by U.S. officials.
- Graphite: Another key component in EV batteries, graphite is also used in fuel cells, lubricants, and industrial applications. Ukraine has substantial graphite reserves, though production has plummeted amid ongoing conflict. In 2024, the country exported just 2,870 tonnes of graphite, worth less than $7 million.
- Titanium: Ukraine holds a substantial portion of the world’s titanium reserves, crucial minerals like ilmenite and rutile used in high-tech sectors like aerospace, defense, and medicine. Representing about 7% of global reserves and the largest in Europe, these deposits theoretically hold a value of $421 billion. A significant portion of these reserves is located in areas under Russian control or contested, severely hindering extraction. This disruption is reflected in a 37% year-on-year drop in Ukraine’s 2024 titanium concentrate exports, resulting in a mere $11.6 million in revenue. To truly capitalise on its resources and compete with Russia, a long-established producer of titanium sponge, Ukraine must invest in its own sponge production capabilities.
- Uranium: With 107,200 tonnes of identified uranium reserves, Ukraine ranks among the top global producers of this nuclear fuel source. However, the country lacks refining capacity, leaving it dependent on external processors—chiefly Russia—for enrichment.
- Cobalt and Nickel: Essential for battery production, Ukraine’s cobalt and nickel reserves are modest but noteworthy. Collectively valued at $3.6 billion, these deposits pale in comparison to those of major producers like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia.
- Copper: A cornerstone of electrical wiring and electronics, copper adds depth to Ukraine’s mineral portfolio. Though estimates suggest Ukraine possesses the fourth-largest reserves in Europe, actual production remains nonexistent. Precise figures for Ukraine’s copper reserves are not available, but Poland’s reserves are valued at $340 billion. Ukraine’s reserves are estimated to be a fraction of that amount.
While these resources are undoubtedly valuable, they do not approach the scale or significance of true REMs. Nor do they justify the astronomical valuations being bandied about in Washington and Brussels.
The Origins of the Misunderstanding
How did such a fundamental error gain traction? According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the confusion stems from a report published by the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Lithuania. Titled provocatively, the document lists minerals like titanium, lithium, and uranium alongside genuine REMs, conflating the two categories entirely.
“What Ukraine has is scorched earth; what it doesn’t have is rare earths. Surprisingly, many people – not least, US President Donald Trump – seem convinced the country has a rich mineral endowment. It’s a folly,” Blas wrote.
This misclassification has been compounded by political rhetoric. Senator Lindsey Graham, a vocal advocate for the minerals deal, recently claimed that Ukraine possesses $2–7 trillion worth of rare earth minerals. Such hyperbole ignores both the scientific reality and the logistical challenges of mining and processing these resources.
Even Donald Trump, never one to shy away from grandiose claims, has jumped on the bandwagon. On 3 February 2025, he declared that Ukraine has “very valuable rare earths,” echoing Graham’s assertions without evidence.
Geopolitics and Supply Chains
Beyond Ukraine’s borders, the stakes are higher still. China currently dominates global REM production, controlling roughly 80% of the market. Its dominance extends beyond raw materials to include refining and processing capabilities, giving Beijing immense leverage over industries reliant on these metals.
Russia, too, plays a pivotal role in the supply chain for certain strategic minerals, particularly uranium. By investing heavily in refining infrastructure, Moscow has positioned itself as a key player in the nuclear energy sector.
For Western nations, this concentration of supply represents a vulnerability—one that has only grown more acute amid rising tensions with Beijing and Moscow. Efforts to diversify sources of critical minerals have thus become a priority, with Ukraine viewed as a potential alternative supplier.
But achieving this goal will require massive investment in exploration, extraction, and processing facilities—none of which Ukraine currently possesses. Without tens of billions of dollars in funding, turning Ukraine’s mineral potential into reality remains a distant dream.
Separating Hype from Hope
Ukraine’s mineral wealth is real, but it is neither as vast nor as transformative as recent headlines suggest. While the country holds promising reserves of lithium, graphite, titanium, and other strategically important minerals, these resources cannot fill the void left by China’s stranglehold on REMs.
Moreover, the path to monetising Ukraine’s mineral assets is fraught with obstacles. From securing financing to navigating geopolitical minefields, the challenges are immense. Investors willing to take the plunge may find themselves waiting years—or even decades—for returns.
As the world grapples with the realities of resource scarcity and shifting alliances, clarity is paramount. Misunderstandings like the one surrounding Ukraine’s so-called rare earth metals risk diverting attention and resources away from more pressing issues.
In the end, Ukraine’s mineral story is not one of untold riches waiting to be unearthed—but rather of cautious optimism tempered by hard truths. It is a reminder that in geopolitics, as in geology, appearances can be deceiving.
