The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to a significant increase in demand for copper, according to sources cited by Fastmarkets. Copper is a critical component in munitions, with bullet cartridge casings made from brass, an alloy of copper and zinc.
In the latest development of the conflict, which has persisted since 2022, a series of Russian missile strikes targeted cities across Ukraine on Monday, including a children’s hospital in Kyiv, resulting in at least 22 deaths and 68 injuries.
“Every day, the war consumes many tonnes of copper. At the end of the war, there will be a new mine in Ukraine with all that copper scrap,” a producer told Fastmarkets, noting the increasing demand for brass.
A NATO 155-millimeter artillery shell contains 0.5 kg of copper, with Ukrainian forces reportedly firing up to 7,000 such shells daily, according to the European Defence Agency (EDA). The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK defense think tank, stated that Russia’s equivalent is the 152 mm shell, with Russia producing 4.5 million shells annually—a 150% increase in output over the past year, as noted by consultancy Bain & Company.
Bloomberg estimates that before the war, the US produced an average of 14,400 shells per month. However, DefenceOne, a specialist defense industry publication, reported that the country aims to ramp up production to 100,000 monthly shells by the end of 2025.
“War is good for the metals business,” said Fastmarkets analyst Andy Farida, suggesting that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is partly responsible for the resilience of copper prices compared to other base metals.
The military’s demand for copper has garnered significant attention in recent years. Mining magnate Robert Friedland recently told Bloomberg that despite China’s weak real estate market, military demand in the country remains high. “Europe is rearming; Japan is rearming. The United States military is worried about a shortage of 155 mm howitzer shells. Where do you think the world’s army is made out of when all the shooting goes on?” Friedland commented. “If someone is pointing a gun at you, you need that copper to shoot back.”
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